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Current Setup The Bajaj Housing Finance share price remains in a downtrend amid fragile sentiment. Recent commentary on this stock noted that it was trading dangerously close to its 52-week lows as of late March. However, the live chart indicates that April has kicked off a recovery from the lows of ₹72.65 at the end of March. It now trades in the ₹89–₹92 range, indicative of broader stabilization in Indian stock markets amid the de-escalatory tone of recent geopolitical headlines. Macro Drivers for the Bajaj Housing Share Price 1)Strong Coy Fundamentals: Q3 FY2026 earnings results indicate a quarter of strong asset quality and solid growth. The numbers indicate 21% YoY growth in net profit to ₹665 crore and a 19% YoY rise in net interest income (NII) to ~₹963 crore. 2) Sentiment Change: The solid quarterly results of Bajaj Housing Ltd were swamped by the risk-off sentiment that pervaded the Indian stock market amid the oil shock risk premium. The stock faced relentless selling pressure and has only begun to recover alongside improvements in the Middle East geopolitical situation, alongside the broader Indian equities market. 3) Near-term Risk Event: A board meeting is scheduled for late April 2026 for approval of the audited FY/Q4 results. This is a risk event that could become a volatility item in the near term. Bajaj Housing Finance Share Price: Catalysts for Next Week 1. Upcoming FY/Q4 Results: The earnings report for the 4th quarter/full year is definitely one to watch out for as far as near-term catalysts are concerned. 2. Incremental disclosure on AUM growth + asset quality: The markets will be watching for asset quality, net interest margins, profit growth, loan losses/provisions, and expansion of its assets under management (AUM). Keep an eye on AUMs, as well as gross/net non-performing loans portfolio. Will these be contained? Bajaj Housing Finance Share Price: Forecast Scenarios Base case: expect price stability during a consolidation following the initial drawdown, provided the geopolitical situation remains calm. The market is currently rebalancing, and once the risk-off sentiment is shaken off, it will focus on the company fundamentals. Bull case: a bounce is expected if the market refocuses on the company's Q3 earnings and asset-quality strength heading into the Q4 results release. Bear case: a downside push and retest of recent lows is a possibility if risk-off sentiment returns. Remember that the Middle East's geopolitical situation has not been resolved, and the current risk-on turn could flip at any time with headlines. Bajaj Housing Finance Share Price: Technical Outlook The breakout above the 86.99 resistance has pushed prices towards the 98.63 resistance and the trendline. A break of these two barriers enables a bullish continuation towards the 104.52 resistance, the prior low of 28 Jan/1 December 2025. A further recovery reclaims the 116.69 resistance and the prior high of 18 September 2025. Figure 1: Daily Chart of Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd showing the key price levels (snapshot taken on 18 April 2026) On the flip side, downside continuation follows a rejection at 98.63/descending trendline. This downside move could retest the 86.99 support. If this support gives way, the 72.82 support (2026 low) becomes the next target.