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Down Nearly 30% Year-to-Date, The Worst Isn’t Yet Over For Oracle Stock

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Summary:
  • Oracle shares fell nearly 3.5% on Thursday. This drop pushed its losses past 7% over five trading days, bringing its year-to-date decline to about 29%. Data-center concerns drove these declines.
  • The latest dip came after reports of power-supply delays at a data center. Other, broader concerns include debt-funded AI spending and Moody's continued review of the company's credit rating.
  • So, even with immediate risks from capacity delays and high capital investment, Oracle's current valuation and strong growth prospects might still appeal to long-term investors.

Oracle shares kept falling on Thursday, September 24, 2026. They closed down almost 3.5% at $139.54. Their loss over the last five trading days grew to more than 7%, pushing the year-to-date drop to about 29%.

Bearish sentiment is strong after the stock’s roughly 50% plunge from its 52-week high of around $322. Investors are now wondering if this recent downturn marks the bottom or if prices will keep falling.

Additionally, the current valuation warrants examination to determine if it presents an investment opportunity and what the company’s fundamental performance indicates about its long-term prospects

 What Is Driving the Selloff

Oracle’s stock price recently dropped, reportedly because the company issued a force majeure notice for its Project Jupiter data center in New Mexico. The notice, sent to Stack Infrastructure, aims to protect Oracle from certain payment duties should construction get delayed.

This is happening while Oracle is spending heavily. For fiscal year 2027, the company has set aside tens of billions in net cash to boost capacity for its fast-growing cloud infrastructure business.

Rising Treasury yields are also making investors nervous. Earlier reports about a September stock dip pointed to stress in the bond market.

Those reports mentioned Oracle’s big free cash flow burn at $23.7 billion last fiscal year, which went into building AI data centers. This kind of debt-heavy strategy gets pricier when yields go up.

Is the Worst Over?

Near-term stock price fluctuations are still likely. Delays in data center delivery, shifts in major clients’ AI spending, or continued questions about Oracle’s leverage could all keep the stock price down.

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Yet, the stock’s year-to-date decline has already tightened its valuation multiples. Forward price-to-earnings ratios now sit in the mid-teens, a moderate level considering the company’s projected revenue and earnings growth.

Forbes points to specific risks, including heavy reliance on OpenAI as a customer, Moody’s review of Oracle’s credit rating, and the hurdles of building and powering its data centers. The report also noted Oracle cut roughly 21,000 employees, almost 13% of its staff, to help fund its expansion.

Is there Opportunity in This?

For investors comfortable with market volatility, a contrarian approach might mean looking past short-term operational snags to Oracle’s underlying business strength.

Oracle’s financials still point to growth. The company has consistently reported faster revenue growth, something its supporters highlight even as concerns about cash spending grab headlines.

Investors should watch Oracle’s investor day in October because that event could bring more clarity on its financing plans. Its also important that you don’t confuse the data center delay with the broader trend of long-term demand. A power supply bottleneck represents an execution hurdle, not a sign that AI infrastructure demand is fading.

Also, current data doesn’t confirm selling pressure has ended, and a volatile stock like this can see big price swings either way depending on the news.

Why did Oracle stock fall nearly 3.5% on September 24?

News of a force majeure notice on the Project Jupiter data center sparked concerns about potential delays and higher costs for AI capacity expansion.

Does the current valuation look attractive?

After falling about 29% this year, forward multiples have tightened into the mid-teens when compared to projected growth rates.

What risks could prolong share-price weakness?

Further data-center delays, high capital spending, periods of negative free cash flow, and significant debt levels are still top concerns for investors.

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