- Nvidia stock has climbed for six straight sessions, driven by its comprehensive AI platform, the CUDA ecosystem, and a strong fiscal 2028 outlook. That outlook predicts about 70% revenue growth, thanks to ongoing demand
- Cloud hyperscalers are developing their own custom chips, and international geopolitical trade and export restrictions to China persist. Also, semiconductor supply chain issues are always a possibility.
- For a more significant breakout, factors like upcoming trade policy discussions, supplier earnings reports and progress on the Rubin architecture carry much weight.
Nvidia stock has risen steadily over the past six trading days, hitting $228.87 on September 22. These gains reflect the broader strength in the semiconductor market, though Nvidia still stands out in the sector.
Nvidia’s Edge in the Chip Rally
Many chipmakers focus only on processor design. Nvidia, in contrast, builds complete, full-stack computing environments. This integrated approach is a big reason it stands apart. It creates high switching barriers and positions Nvidia at the heart of data center development.
Recent financial reports highlight how much this matters. For the second quarter of fiscal year 2027, revenue hit $96.2 billion, more than doubling the previous year’s total. Sales from data centers accounted for most of this revenue.
While the PHLX Semiconductor Index rose over 60% in 2026, Nvidia stock performance for the year lagged this trend. Even with a nearly 9% gain in a single session following its recent Q2 results, the stock’s still catching up. This recent six-day streak seems to be part of that effort.
Management also gave a clearer long-term outlook, predicting about 70% revenue growth for fiscal year 2028. This projection exceeds earlier consensus estimates. It suggests strong demand continues, held back by supply, rather than easing.
Near-Term Threats to Momentum
Despite the recent positive trend, a few things could slow its rise. Its valuation has compressed significantly, and based on forward earnings, the stock’s trading near multi-year lows. This shows investor uncertainty about how long current profit levels can last.
Higher memory costs will likely squeeze gross margins in the coming quarters. We might see margins fall into the low 70s, a decline from recent highs near 75%.
Nvidia director Mark Stevens, once a managing partner at Sequoia Capital, also sold another 1.4 million shares, worth around $300 million. This continues a trend of significant insider sales, following a $640 million sale earlier in the month and an $186 million sale in June.
While these sales don’t necessarily point to specific business problems, consistent, large-scale insider selling can still weigh on market sentiment.
Could We See a Stronger Rally?
A few developments could spark a stronger rally soon. For example, successfully rolling out the next-gen Rubin platform on a large scale would confirm Nvidia’s product pipeline is truly boosting revenue.
If hyperscale customers confirm continued or increased capital spending, that would bolster the long-term demand story. Better memory supply or pricing, easing margin pressure, would also be a positive sign.
Also, earnings reports from major memory makers like Micron will offer important insight into the AI hardware supply chain’s overall health.
Upcoming trade policy discussions, including insights from high-level US-China negotiations and geopolitical talks, could also clarify international export regulations.
Nvidia’s stock rally hasn’t kept up with the PHLX Semiconductor Index this year, lagging the broader chip sector’s stronger gains.
Director Mark Stevens recently sold hundreds of millions in shares. While this might not signal business problems, persistent insider selling can still undermine investor confidence.
Nvidia stock’s short-term risks include export restrictions to China due to geopolitical tensions, dependence on manufacturing partners for its supply chain, and large hyperscale customers building their own chips.