- The Nifty 50 rose 0.36% to 23,301.30 on Thursday morning, recovering from a weak open after the Federal Reserve raised US interest rates by 25 basis points.
- The NSE IPO opened for subscription today, adding another major catalyst for Indian markets as investors assess one of India's largest public offerings.
- Crude oil above $100, a rupee near 96 per US dollar and continued FII selling remain key risks despite the Nifty 50's intraday recovery.
The Nifty 50 rebounded above 23,300 on Thursday after initially opening lower as Indian stock markets absorbed the Federal Reserve’s first US interest rate hike in more than three years. The benchmark index traded at 23,301.30 by 10:22 IST, up 83.70 points or 0.36%, after opening at 23,195.25. The Nifty 50 reached an intraday high of 23,325.40 after briefly falling to 23,193.65, according to the latest market data.
The recovery marks an improvement from the cautious start to the session, when the Sensex and Nifty 50 initially slipped following the Fed decision. Investors are also tracking the opening of the highly anticipated NSE IPO, elevated crude oil prices, foreign investor outflows and renewed pressure on the Indian rupee.
Why Is the Nifty 50 Rising Today?
The Nifty 50 is rising today after recovering from early losses triggered by the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike, with domestic buying helping the index move back above the 23,300 level. Indian stocks opened cautiously. At 9:15 a.m. IST, the Nifty 50 was down 0.1% at 23,195.25, while the Sensex declined 0.21% to 74,182.62. Eight of the 16 major sectoral indices were initially lower.
The weakness did not last.
The Nifty subsequently climbed more than 100 points from its intraday low, crossing 23,300 and moving into positive territory. That rebound suggests domestic investors are so far absorbing the Fed decision better than the pre-market signals indicated.
Still, the broader backdrop remains cautious. Higher US interest rates, crude oil above $100 and foreign investor selling continue to present challenges for Indian equities.
Fed Rate Hike Puts Indian Stock Market in Focus
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, taking the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%.
It was the Fed’s first increase in more than three years.
More importantly for the Nifty 50 outlook, policymakers signalled that the tightening cycle may not be finished. Updated projections showed that 16 of 18 Fed officials expect at least one additional 25-basis-point increase before the end of 2026.
That matters for Indian equities because higher US rates can make dollar-denominated assets relatively more attractive and reduce foreign investor appetite for emerging markets.
Indian IT companies are particularly sensitive because the US is a major source of revenue for the sector. The Nifty IT index fell around 0.5% in early trading, reflecting concerns that higher US borrowing costs could eventually affect technology spending and demand.
NSE IPO Opens for Subscription Today
The NSE IPO opened for subscription on September 17, giving investors another major event to watch alongside the Nifty 50. The National Stock Exchange is seeking about $2.3 billion through the IPO, making it one of India’s largest public offerings. The issue is entirely an offer for sale by existing shareholders, meaning NSE itself will not receive fresh capital from the listing.
NSE had already attracted significant institutional interest before Thursday’s public opening. The exchange allocated approximately ₹6,746 crore worth of shares to anchor investors at ₹1,785 per share, the top of its IPO price range. LIC was the largest anchor bidder, while Norway’s Government Pension Fund, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Fidelity were among the other major investors.
The NSE IPO price band is ₹1,700-₹1,785 per share, and public subscription runs through September 21. The issue could also have an indirect impact on the wider Indian stock market.
A large IPO can absorb retail and institutional liquidity that might otherwise flow into secondary-market shares. With several offerings competing for investor capital, the crowded primary market is another factor to watch for the Nifty 50 this week.
Indian Rupee Near 96 After Fed Decision
The Indian rupee remains under pressure near 96 per US dollar, adding another concern for domestic markets. The currency had already weakened substantially ahead of the Fed decision as higher crude prices, foreign portfolio outflows and rising US yields increased demand for dollars.
The rupee closed Wednesday around 95.9550 per dollar after briefly weakening to 95.9750. Reserve Bank of India intervention was believed to have helped prevent a sustained move through the 96 level.
The Fed decision has added to those pressures. Higher US interest rates strengthened the Dollar and pushed short-term Treasury yields higher. Reuters reported Thursday that the Dollar reached a seven-week high against major currencies following the Fed announcement.
For Indian markets, a weaker rupee can increase imported inflation, particularly because India depends heavily on imported crude oil.
Crude Oil Above $100 Remains a Risk for Nifty 50
Oil remains another major factor in the Nifty 50 outlook. Brent crude eased following reports that Saudi Arabia had offered additional cargoes through Oman, helping alleviate some immediate supply concerns. However, prices remain exceptionally elevated.
Brent traded around $105-$106 per barrel on Thursday, while geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to keep energy markets volatile. Expensive oil presents a particular challenge for India because higher import costs can widen the trade deficit, weaken the rupee and increase domestic inflation.
That creates a difficult combination for equities. If oil remains above $100 for an extended period, markets may also increase expectations that the Reserve Bank of India could tighten monetary policy, particularly if inflation continues to accelerate.
Nifty IT Stocks Under Pressure After Fed Hike
Technology stocks were among the weaker parts of the Indian market following the Fed decision. The Nifty IT index fell around 0.5% at the open, as investors assessed what higher US interest rates could mean for technology spending. Indian IT companies generate a substantial share of their revenue from US clients, leaving the sector sensitive to changes in the American economic outlook.
Higher borrowing costs can lead corporations to delay or reduce discretionary technology projects. That makes IT one of the sectors most directly exposed to the Fed’s renewed tightening cycle, particularly if policymakers deliver another rate hike before the end of the year.
Nifty 50 Forecast: Can the Index Hold Above 23,300?
The Nifty 50 forecast has improved following Thursday’s rebound, but the index remains exposed to several major macroeconomic risks. The latest price action shows the Nifty recovering from 23,193.65 to above 23,300, with the intraday high at 23,325.40. That makes 23,300-23,325 the immediate area to watch. A sustained move above this region could strengthen the rebound and bring 23,400 into focus.
On the downside, the 23,200 region is the first important support area, closely matching Thursday’s opening level, intraday low and Wednesday’s 23,217.60 close. A sustained break below 23,200 could put the recent lows back under pressure. For now, the Nifty 50 is showing resilience after the Fed decision. Whether that recovery lasts will depend on foreign investor flows, crude oil prices, the rupee and the market’s interpretation of further US rate hikes.
What Could Drive the Nifty 50 Next?
The Fed decision may be over, but the global central-bank calendar remains busy. Investors are now watching the Bank of England and Bank of Japan, while markets continue to assess whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates again before year-end.
Domestically, the NSE IPO subscription, rupee and crude oil prices should remain important drivers through the remainder of the week. The combination leaves the Nifty 50 caught between resilient domestic buying and a challenging global macro backdrop.
Thursday’s recovery above 23,300 is an encouraging intraday move, but holding that level through the session would provide a clearer indication that buyers are regaining control.
The Nifty 50 is rising after recovering from early losses following the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate hike. The index climbed above 23,300 after opening near 23,195, supported by renewed domestic buying
The Nifty 50 initially opened lower after the Federal Reserve raised US interest rates by 25 basis points, but subsequently recovered. Higher US rates remain a risk because they can encourage foreign capital to move toward dollar assets and increase pressure on emerging markets.
The Nifty 50 forecast remains cautiously constructive while the index holds above 23,200, but elevated oil prices, FII selling, rupee weakness and the possibility of further Fed rate hikes remain important risks.