- Gold prices fall to 2-month lows after renewed US-Iran tensions and heightened inflationary expectations, ahead of US data,
Ahead of the US Core PCE Price Index data at 1230 UTC, the US dollar has hit one-week highs after renewed strikes by US forces on Iran stoked fears of a potential rate hike amid inflationary concerns. Gold, silver, and platinum are all down heavily this Thursday, with gold hitting 2-month lows.
Gold prices are down 1.5% as of writing, as investors moved flows out of the non-yielding yellow metal into the US Dollar amid the rise in US bond yields. The situation has come after a full reversal of the expectations that followed US President Trump’s weekend tweets about a potential peace deal being in the works. The renewed strikes have brought geopolitical tensions back to the forefront. Oil prices rose 3% after the renewed tensions.
Comments from Fed policymaker and Fed Reserve Governor Lisa Cook added to renewed hawkish expectations from the Fed. Cook said on Wednesday that the Fed should keep short-term interest rates at current levels, but that if the war and a surge in AI investments were to push prices higher, she would advocate for a rate hike if necessary.
Risk Events for the Day
Two high-impact macroeconomic news items are expected from the US today. Both will be released at 1230 UTC (0830 EST), with the Core PCE Price Index expected to come in unchanged at 0.3%. The Preliminary US GDP data (QoQ) is expected to show growth from 0.7% to 2.0%, according to a survey of economists. Other news on the docket include the US Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders.
Gold Price Technical Outlook
The progressively lower tops seen in the XAU/USD’s daily chart price action over the last several weeks indicated that the upside momentum on gold had stalled. The decline is now testing the 4382 support level, last seen as the uncapped peak of the 20 October 2025 price candle. If the bears take out this support level, it opens new targets to the south, initially at 4282 (31 December 2025 low), followed by the 8 December 2025 low at 4174.
On the flip side, a bounce at the current support could lead to a recovery aimed at reclaiming the 4510 resistance (5 May low). If this resistance is uncapped, a further push towards the 12 January 2026 high at 4634 will be on the cards. Only when this new resistance gives way can gold prices revisit the early May high at 4764.
