USD/TRY Plunges To New Lows – Is There Any Hope Left For Turkish Lira
USD/TRY has been making new lows every week since the conclusion of the Turkish elections. During this time, Dollar to Lira exchange rate plummeted by more than 37.5%. Even after such a cataclysmic drop, there are no signs of a potential recovery.
The Turkish Lira started this week after making fresh lows against the US dollar. USDTRY exchange rate jumped to 27.172 on the first trading session of the week. On Tuesday, the pair extended its gains till 27.20. The pair was trading 0.40% above its previous close at press time.
Will The Turkish Lira Ever Recover?
Turkish currency has been in a tailspin for the past couple of years. The stubbornness of Erdogan regime to raise interest rates has created a cost of living crisis in the country. Consequently, USD/TRY has soared to its highest level in history, and analysts predict a further surge.
Even though the Erdogan regime has aggressively hiked interest rates since its election victory, the measures are still insufficient. Last month, Turkish Central Bank hiked the interest rates by 250 bps, taking the rates to 17.5%. Many analysts called this hike insufficient, as most expected a 500 bps hike.
It is very hard to make a forecast for a depreciating currency like Lira. According to the latest news, Citi Research expects the USDTRY pair to rise more in the coming months. As per the details, Citi is entering into a long trade targeting the 32 levels with a stop loss of 25.
My USD/TRY forecast is also very bullish. Analysts were expecting some recovery in Lira in case of a change in government. However, after Erdogan’s reelection as the president, the sell-off has intensified despite an aggressive hike in interest rates.
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