- Nifty 50 rose 0.27% to 23,938, after briefly crossing 24,000, while the Sensex gained 492 points to 76,644.87 on Friday.
- Indian stocks rebounded after four consecutive losing sessions as US Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations eased and global equities rallied.
- 24,000 remains the key Nifty 50 level to watch, while high crude oil prices and the upcoming US jobs report could determine whether Friday's recovery extends.
Nifty 50 moved back toward the key 24,000 level on Friday as Indian stocks rebounded from four consecutive sessions of losses, supported by stronger global markets and fading expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate hike this month.
The Nifty 50 was trading at 23,938.00, up 64.55 points or 0.27%, after reaching an intraday high above 24,000. The BSE Sensex climbed 492.01 points, or 0.65%, to 76,644.87.
The rebound follows a difficult stretch for Indian equities. Nifty closed Thursday at 23,873.45, while Sensex finished at 76,152.86 as high crude prices, geopolitical tensions and volatility surrounding India’s new closing-auction system weighed on sentiment.
Why Is Nifty 50 Rising Today?
The biggest catalyst behind today’s Nifty 50 recovery is the change in expectations surrounding US interest rates. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would support leaving rates unchanged at the Fed’s September meeting if incoming data confirms that inflation is easing.
Markets responded quickly. The implied probability of a September rate increase fell to around 50% from more than 63%, helping push US Treasury yields lower and lifting global risk appetite.
For India, reduced expectations of another US rate increase are supportive because lower Treasury yields can make emerging-market assets relatively more attractive to global investors. That shift helped the Nifty 50 briefly reclaim 24,000 during Friday’s session.
Sensex Today Jumps as Global Markets Rally
The Sensex rose more than 600 points earlier in Friday’s session before giving back part of its gains. The recovery followed a strong Wall Street session. The Dow Jones gained 1.18% on Thursday, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.06% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.40%.
Asian equities followed Wall Street higher on Friday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose more than 2%, South Korea’s KOSPI gained around 1.3% and Japan’s Nikkei advanced approximately 1.1%. That broader risk-on environment provided a much stronger opening backdrop for Indian equities following four consecutive sessions of losses.
BSE and Capital-Market Stocks Rally After SEBI Review
Capital-market stocks were among Friday’s notable gainers after the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) said it would review the settlement-price methodology used for derivatives. The announcement followed unusually large price swings during India’s recently introduced closing-auction session.
On Thursday, the Sensex’s indicative close temporarily plunged about 2.5%, sending premiums on some Sensex put options up between 400% and 500%. The benchmark eventually recovered to close just 0.55% lower. SEBI has now said it plans to propose changes to the derivatives settlement methodology and issue a discussion paper.
The development helped BSE, Angel One and other capital-market stocks rebound sharply during Friday’s session.
Indian Rupee Gains as RBI Supports Currency
The Indian rupee also strengthened during Friday’s session, trading around 94.46 against the US dollar in early dealings. Traders told Reuters that the Reserve Bank of India again sold dollars to support the currency, extending a series of interventions designed to limit pressure from elevated oil prices.
A more stable rupee is supportive for Indian equities because it can reduce concerns around imported inflation and foreign investor currency losses.
However, crude oil remains an important risk. Brent crude has climbed above $95 per barrel amid continuing US-Iran tensions. India imports most of its crude requirements, making sustained increases in oil prices potentially negative for inflation, the rupee and corporate margins.
Nifty 50 Forecast: Can Nifty Break Above 24,000?
The Nifty 50 outlook has improved, but 24,000 remains the immediate test for buyers. Nifty reached an intraday high of approximately 24,005.75 on Friday but subsequently slipped back below the psychological level.
That makes the 24,000–24,080 region the immediate resistance zone. A sustained move above this area could put 24,150–24,215 in focus.
On the downside, 23,860–23,900 is the first area to watch. A break below 23,860 would weaken Friday’s recovery and could expose the recent lows. For now, the Nifty 50 forecast is cautiously bullish above 23,860, but a sustained break above 24,000 is needed to confirm stronger upside momentum.
Nifty 50 Outlook: US Jobs Data Is the Next Major Test
The Nifty 50 outlook now turns to Friday’s US jobs report, which could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 policy meeting.
Markets have already reduced their expectations for a September rate hike following Waller’s comments, but the outlook remains finely balanced. The August US payrolls report is expected to show relatively modest employment growth, while next week’s US CPI data could ultimately prove even more important for the Fed decision.
For Nifty, a softer US labour report could reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, potentially supporting emerging-market equities. A stronger-than-expected report could revive rate-hike expectations and put pressure back on Indian stocks.
With Nifty testing 24,000 and Sensex recovering above 76,600, the next move will likely depend on whether improving global risk sentiment can outweigh elevated crude prices and geopolitical uncertainty.
Nifty 50 is rising as investors return after four consecutive sessions of losses. Lower expectations for a September Fed rate hike, falling US bond yields and gains across Asian equity markets have supported sentiment.
Nifty has already briefly moved above 24,000 intraday. The more important question is whether it can sustain a move above the level. A confirmed breakout above 24,000–24,080 could strengthen the case for a move toward 24,150–24,215.
Sensex is rising alongside Nifty as easing Fed rate-hike expectations improve global risk appetite. Capital-market and IT stocks have also contributed to Friday’s recovery.
The immediate global catalyst is the US jobs report, followed by next week’s US inflation data. Traders will also be watching crude oil prices, US-Iran tensions, foreign investor flows and the rupee.