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Gold Price Forecast for 2023, 2025, 2030 and Beyond

Gold price (XAU/USD) has remained volatile in 2023. After cratering to $1,615 in 2022, the XAU/USD price reached its all-time high in May 2023. This means that gold has moved into its first bull market since 2021. Other metals like silver and palladium have also shown significant growth in 2023.

Due to the increasing strength of the US dollar, Gold price per ounce is having a major correction. The inflation data of the August 2023 is expected to turn the US Fed more hawkish. However, the demand for safe haven assets may increase in the coming months if the economy starts deteriorating or move towards a recession.

XAU/USD Faces Headwinds From Sticky Inflation

The latest CPI data showed that inflation increased slightly more than the market expectations in August 2023. The YoY inflation came at 3.7% against the forecast of 3.6%. This CPI report will play a key role in the upcoming FOMC meeting, which is scheduled on 19-20 September 2023.

The PCE inflation, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, also increased in July 2023. As per the recently released data, the Personal Consumption Expenditure increased by 0.2% and 3.3% on MoM and YoY basis, respectively. However, this was offset by the weakening job market as the latest data showed a downtick in job creation.

Please note that the original article was published in September 2022. However, we update it regularly to incorporate all the latest information. You are also welcome to join my free Telegram group for up-to-date analysis on Gold & Bitcoin.

Gold news

After another 25 bps rate hike in July 2023, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that he saw a path of a soft landing. However, he ruled out the possibility of rate cuts this year as the inflation still stood above 3%. The July CPI data showed that inflation increased by 3.2% on a yearly basis. This was slightly lower than the forecasted figure of 3.3%.

Gold price chart has been historically inversely correlated to the DXY index. In the past few weeks, the DXY index has shown a strong recovery from its fresh 53-week lows. This has resulted in a pullback in the prices of Gold and Silver. The Dollar Strength Index is once again standing above 102 points after dropping below 100 in July.

Gold price history

In August 2020, the gold price rallied to an all-time high of $2,072.85, surpassing the previous record high of $1,924.77 it hit nine years before. With the subsequent decline, the psychologically crucial zone of $2,000 has remained evasive. However, it has remained above $1,600 since rising above it at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in April 2020.

Gold price crashed to $1,616 on September 28 of, 2022. This price was about 21.88% from its highest point in 2022. This crash coincided with a period when the Federal Reserve was hiking interest rates aggressively in a bid to fight soaring inflation. It then started rising after signs emerged that inflation was starting to ease in the US.

Bullion has performed really well this year. After a sell-off in 2022, the precious metal soared 14% in the first four months of 2023. After a pullback in September 2023, the price has been in the midst of recovery.

Gold price history - chart
Gold Chart

Gold Price Forecast 2023

As evident from the following XAU/USD chart, the pair has been respecting a diagonal trendline, which is acting as a support. Bullion has already bounced off a couple of times from this trendline in 2023. A breakdown below this support line will be very cataclysmic.

Currently, the dollar strength (DXY) index is trading at its highest level since March 2023. Due to a strong surge in the DXY index, Gold has plummeted below its 200 MA on the daily chart. If DXY breaks above its 105.6 points resistance level, the Gold price forecast may turn extremely bearish. In case of a correction in the index, a reclaim of the 200 MA will be very crucial for the precious metal’s price.

I’ll keep posting my updated outlook on Gold and other assets in my free Telegram group, which you’re welcome to join.

Gold price chart - 1D
XAU/USD Chart – 1D Timeframe

Gold price forecast 2025 

The gold price forecast 2025 is largely an extrapolation of the influential factors in the current year. At the beginning of the year, Goldman Sachs indicated that the commodities bull market observed in the past year will likely continue into the current year and beyond. Indeed, the investment bank holds that the commodities supercycle will last for about 10 years.

The precious metal may reach a new all-time high of $2,200 an ounce based on this narrative. In addition, aIn addition, a tighter Fed policy and subsequent decline in economic growth will likely boost its performance as a risk-on asset.

However, even with the bullish gold price forecast 2025, competition from Bitcoin as a store of value may limit its upward potential.   

Gold price forecast 2030

A feasible gold price forecast 2030 is founded on US dollar movements due to the existing inverse correlation. In the event of geopolitical tensions, gold may find some support in its status as a safe haven. However, its upward momentum may be limited by a rise in the demand for the greenback.   

Over the past eight years, gold price has risen by about 60%. However, an assumption that the bull market will continue over the next eight years makes a surge of 50% viable. In that case, the gold price forecast for 2030 will be for the precious metal to hit a high of about $2,700 an ounce.

How to invest in gold

One of the viable ways to invest in gold is by buying bullion. It may be in coins or bars, certified with purity and weight have. Then, one can purchase or sell the physical gold to a reputable dealer. However, security reasons often lead some investors to embrace the route of futures and options.

Best gold stocks to invest in

One of the best ways to invest in gold is through stocks. In the past few years, mergers and acquisitions in the sector has led to a significant consolidation in the sector. Today, only a few large companies dominate the industry.

Barrick Gold, a company valued at $29 billion, is one of the best gold stocks to invest in. Its stock has dropped by about 7.95%. The other excellent stock to buy is Wheaton Precious Metals, which is worth over $17 billion. Unlike other gold companies, Wheaton does not do the real mining. Instead, the company has purchased rights for key gold assets. As such, it has a net income margin of 71% compared to Barrick Gold’s 16%. 

The other best gold stocks to invest in are Franco-Nevada, Newmont Corporation, and Agnico Eagle mine. The chart below shows the performance of some of the biggest gold stocks in the industry.

Gold stocks chart
Gold stocks chart

Gold futures

Futures are a contract in which one agrees to buy or sell the financial asset at the agreed-upon price before the expiry of the contract. For options, the investor has a chance and not an obligation to buy or sell the underlying instrument for as long as the contract is valid. To invest in gold via futures and options, one needs an account with a reputable financial broker. It is possible to trade in gold for a commission through the brokerage account.

Gold ETFs

ETFs and mutual funds are yet another viable way to invest in gold. A share of this financial instrument represents a specific amount of gold. One needs a brokerage account to trade in gold ETFs or mutual funds, like in futures and options.

In addition to the aforementioned ways of investing in gold, an investor can consider buying stocks of gold mining companies like Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD) or Newmont Corp. (NEM). While the share price is usually correlated to gold price, the firm’s fundamentals are also influential.

The chart below shows some of the most popular gold ETFs, including the iShares Gold Trust and SPDR Gold Trust. As you can see, these ETFs tend to move in sync with gold prices.

Gold ETF chart
Gold ETF SPDR Gold Chart

Summary

As was the case in 2021, gold’s relation with inflation has mixed. In 2023, the trend will likely continue as inflationary pressures continue to boost the precious metal. Nonetheless, an environment of higher interest rates may curb its upward potential.