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EURUSD Unchanged But Could See Volatility Pick Up When ECB President Lagarde Speaks


It’s been a quiet start for EURUSD. The currency pair is trading around its opening price at 1.1219. However, it could soon see volatility pick up when ECB President Lagarde makes her speech.

There has been very little in terms of economic data from both the euro zone and the US this week. For instance, today, only the third-tier German import prices report for May is scheduled for release at 7:00 am GMT. It is widely expected to show a 0.5% increase in prices for the month.

Meanwhile, a few second-tier reports from the US are due later. At 1:30 pm GMT, the core PCE price index is anticipated to come in at 0.0% for May. Meanwhile, the personal spending report for the month is eyed at 8.9%. Finally, at 3:00 pm GMT, the revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report is seen to print at 79.1 for June.

The bigger catalyst for movement on EURUSD today could come from the ECB President herself, Christine Lagarde. She is scheduled to make a speech at 9:00 am GMT and if she drops any hints on the future of the ECB’s monetary policy, we could see the currency pair be more volatile. Remarks about the possibility of more easing would be bearish for EURUSD while confidence about the euro zone economy could push the currency pair higher.

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EURUSD Outlook

On the 4-hour time frame, it can be seen that EURUSD has been consolidating as of late. The currency pair is, in fact, trading around a previous trendline when you connect the highs of June 10, June 11, and June 16. Reversal candlesticks around this price could mean that buyers may soon push EURUSD to near-term resistance at the 100 SMA at 1.1275.

On the other hand, it’s worth noting that a bearish pennant also seems to have formed. This is characterized by a tight consolidation following a sharp sell-off. A close below the low of June 25 at 1.1189 could mean that there are still sellers in the market and that we could soon see EURUSD fall to its June 19 lows at 1.1167.

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