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Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Falls Steeply as Fed Signals a March Rate Hike

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Archived Article This article was published more than 5 months ago. The market data, prices, forecasts, and analysis were accurate at the time of publication but may have changed since then. Please use this article for historical reference only and refer to our latest content for current market information.

Summary:
  • As the Fed signals a potential rate hike in March, gold prices responded with a steep fall on the back of a stronger US Dollar.

Gold prices fell on Wednesday by 1.63% after the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. However, the FOMC has left the door open to a potential lift-off for a rate hiking cycle, beginning from March 2022. 

The US economy has been groaning under record-h igh inflation, putting a squeeze on consumers and businesses. With unemployment also falling in tandem with rising inflation, little justification remains to continue with asset purchases in a low-rate environment. 

The FOMC statement said it would soon be appropriate to raise rates, but the market appears to be pricing in a lift-off in March, which is also when the asset purchases will end.  

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Gold Price Outlook

The FOMC statement provided strength to the US Dollar, allowing the XAU/USD pair to maintain the bearish stance for the day. This sentiment manifested as rejection of price at the upper boundary of the rising wedge, ending with a slight violation of the lower border of the wedge. 

Only the 1815.20 support kept the price from falling further, but the threat of a breakdown remains. If this support level collapses, 1789.51 becomes the next target. 1763.30 and 1741.01 remain additional downside targets.

On the other hand, a bounce on the 1815.20 support allows the price to retest the resistance zone between 1828/1840. If the price breaks above this zone, 1860.77 becomes the target of choice. 

XAU/USD: Daily Chart

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