The UK general election should be this week’s top market mover. The most significant risk for the GBPUSD is if the conservatives fail to get a majority, as the betting markets are giving it a 78% probability that PM Johnson has enough momentum to capture the 326 seats needed to form his own majority. In total, there are 650 seats in the House of Commons.
The latest poll shows that the Tories where ahead 10-points according to the Financial Times poll tracker, and this is not enough to be able to say with certainty if they get their own majority. Voting will end on Thursday at 10 PM London time, and we should be receiving an exit poll shortly afterward.
As for the GBPUSD, the pair has risen sharply over the last few days, and the next support level can be found at the October high of 1.3017, while the May 2019 high of 1.3179 might stop trades in their tracks for some profit-taking.
Federal Reserve Decision: Watch EURUSD, and USDJPY
This week’s Fed rate meeting should not spur any major moves but it is still interesting to hear what the FOMC has to say about the latest Non-Farm Payroll figures. The bank will also release its latest economic projections.