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Tesla Stock Price Prediction 2023, 2025, 2030. A Good Investment?


Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares have joined the global stock rally in 2023. They soared to a high of $217.65, which was much higher than the year-to-date low of $100. The rally gathered momentum after the company published what most analysts believed were strong profitability numbers for 2022.

After repeated rejections from the $208 resistance, Tesla stock price had a major pullback. In April 2023, the price tagged a low of $152 and has been in the midst of a recovery since then. Most analysts believe that the company’s stock is overvalued and may see more downside in the coming months.

Tesla stock latest news

As per the most recent Tesla news, Elon Musk has warned the shareholders about the deteriorating global economy. According to the CEO of the biggest EV maker, Tesla is not immune to a weakness in the global economy. He also told the shareholders that he was not stepping down as the CEO.

Recently, the popular rating agency Moody’s has upgraded the Tesla bonds to investor-grade status. A few months earlier, S&P also upgraded the credit rating of Tesla from BB+ to BBB. This shows that Tesla stock is on its way to becoming a blue-chip as it is currently the global leader in the manufacturing of electric vehicles.

In other Tesla news, the company has hiked its prices in the US, Canada, China, and Japan after a series of price cuts. After the change, Model 3 will cost 231,900 CNY from its previous price of 229,900 CNY.

Tesla Financials Remain Strong

The biggest EV maker is ramping up its Gigafactory Texas and Gigafactory Berlin. This has resulted in a massive increase in production and deliveries. The company delivered 405,000 vehicles in Q4 2022. Due to the increase in production and the surge in demand, Tesla Inc. is on track for another strong performance in Q1 2023.

The most important Tesla news was the company’s fourth-quarter and full-year results. In its statement, the company said its Q4 revenue rose to $21.45 billion, which was higher than the $13.75 billion. Its profit jumped to $1.19 per share, which was higher than the median analyst estimates of $1.13. Most of these numbers, as expected, were from its automotive business, which made over $21.3 billion.

However, due to a series of price cuts across different markets, the Q1 financials of Tesla weren’t that impressive. Even though the company met most of the analysts expectations, the net income of Tesla still fell by 24% from last year. This has resulted in a sell-off in Tesla stock price, which is now trading close to its 3-month lows.

Tesla Price Cuts 2023

In its efforts to boost sales, Tesla has already slashed car prices multiple times in 2023. Although the price cuts vary depending on the region, on average, Model S and Model X prices have been lowered by a few thousand dollars. In March 2023, the company announced a 5.2% and 4.3% discount on Model S all-wheel drive and Plaid models, respectively.

The other important Tesla news is that the company has also cut prices in China for the second time. It slashed the price of Model 3 BY 13.5% to 229,900 yuan, while Model Y dropped by 10% to 259,900.

The recent price cuts by Tesla in different regions have also resulted in similar measures from its competitors. Its top Chinese competitor, BYD, also recently announced price cuts in the 2nd biggest economy. As per the latest financial report from BYD, its profit increased by four folds in 2022.

Tesla Changes Prices In the US Once Again

Elon Musk’s electric car maker has also revised its prices in the US once again. This marks the fourth price change in a span of 4 months. The recent price changes would affect the prices of the Model 3 sedan and Model Y crossover. The Model 3 is now listed on the company website $500 cheaper, while the price of the Model Y crossover increased by $1000.

Another notable Tesla stock news was Bill Miller, a legendary investor is shorting Tesla. He warned that he would continue shorting the stock if it made more positive moves. His rationale was that Tesla was highly overvalued as it was valued at a higher valuation than the other five auto companies like General Motors, Ford, and Toyota. 

Tesla To Have Record-Breaking Sales In China

According to recently released insurance registration data from China Merchants Bank, 106,915 new Tesla vehicles got registered by 19th March. This puts the company on track to have a record number of sales in China after setting a record just in its last quarter. Tesla stock is up 11% after the news as investors expect a strong quarter.

What is the Tesla market cap? 

The market capitalization of Tesla Inc. can be found by multiplying its current price with the outstanding shares in the market. According to multiple sources, there are 3.16 billion Tesla shares outstanding in the market. Taking the current Tesla stock price of $166.52 gives us a Tesla market cap of $521 billion.

Elon Musk Tesla ownership

What is Elon Musk net worth?

As the founder of Tesla, Elon Musk is the company’s biggest shareholder. According to Bloomberg, while Musk has been selling his stake in Tesla, he still owns about 172.6 million shares. That means that his stake is worth about 17%, bringing his total ownership to more than $90 billion. 

The recent surge in Tesla market cap has once again made Elon Musk the richest man in the world. According to reports, Elon Musk currently owns 172.6 million shares of the company, which translates into a 17% stake in the company.

He also has billions of dollars in cash, which he made by selling his stock last year. Notably, he has an interest in SpaceX. Elon Musk’s net worth is estimated to be over $145 billion, making him the wealthiest person globally. He has also taken loans against his shares to acquire Twitter.

Elon Musk has also been overtaken by Bernand Arnault, the biggest shareholder of LVMH, as the richest man on earth.

Elon Musk Donates Tesla Stock To Charity

Elon Musk has recently disclosed a Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) donation that he made in 2022 to a charity. According to the latest filing to the US regulator, the tech billionaire donated $1.95 billion in Tesla stock to charity in 2022. However, the name of the charity recipient hasn’t been revealed who received around 11.6 million shares.

Recently, Tesla has taken a step back from its plans to produce batteries in Germany. Instead, the EV maker will carry out the same production at its US facility due to favorable tax incentives. The discarded German battery facility was to be founded in Brandenburg, Germany.

Tesla share price history

Tesla launched its initial public offering in 2010. When it went public, the Tesla stock price was trading at a split-adjusted rate of $5. Since then, the TSLA stock has jumped by more than 28,000%, making it one of the best performers in the market.

While the long-term performance of the TSLA share has been good, the journey to the top has not been smooth. As shown below, the stock declined by 38% within a few months in 2015. Similarly, it then dropped by 56% within a few months in 2019. At the time, Elon Musk even warned that he had funds secure to take the company private.

Tesla stock price plunged by more than 75% in 2022, one of its worst years on record. It even underperformed Bitcoin, the biggest cryptocurrency in the world. However, the price has shown a remarkable recovery since it dipped to $102 in January 2023. It has gained more than 107% since then as TSLA is now trading at $209.25. This recent surge in price is being attributed to the bullish Tesla quarterly financials, which showed a significant increase in its sales and revenue.

Is Tesla a good investment?

Tesla is a highly divisive company. On the one hand, there are die-hard fans like Cathie Wood who believe that the company will do well and thrive in the future. On the other side, there are analysts and investors like Scotty Kilmer and Bill Miller who believes that the promised future of EVs is only a mirage. He believes that there will be no mass demand for the company.

From a fundamental perspective, Tesla is no longer a good investment because of its valuation and competition. The company is valued at over $350 billion while companies like Toyota and Volkswagen are valued at less than $200 billion each. GM and Ford are valued at less than $50 billion. Therefore, it is hard to justify the company’s valuation.

Further, the company is facing significant competition from both incumbent companies like GM and Ford and upstarts like Rivian and Lucid. Rivian and Ford are its biggest threats because it has still not launched its truck product. Also, it is unclear whether the company’s truck will be successful since it seems like a relatively niche product. 

Further, high-interest rates will make Tesla’s products unaffordable even with the incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act.

On the other hand, proponents say that Tesla has a strong market share in the EV industry, a strong supercharger network, and a loyal fanbase. 

Is Tesla profitable?

A few years ago, there were concerns that Tesla will never be a profitable company. This view has changed recently when the company started making strong profits. It has a net income margin of 10%, which is expected to grow as it boosts its scale.

Tesla turned its first profit in 2020 when it made $862 million in net profit. The figure rose to more than $5.5 billion in 2021 and over $11 billion in the past four straight quarters. Tesla made a net income of $3.3 billion in Q1 of 2022 followed by $2.5 billion and $3.2 billion in the next two quarters.

is Tesla profitable?

Is Tesla overvalued?

Most analysts believe that Tesla is an overvalued company. However, most of them justify this valuation because of its market share, revenue and unit growth, and upcoming projects like semi and cybertruck. A DCF valuation on Tesla shows that the stock is highly undervalued. It has a fair valuation of $161 per share, significantly below its current level.

TSLA DCF valuation

Meanwhile, analysts’ average estimate of the Tesla stock price target is $246. Those who have a bearish rating are from Credit Suisse, Canaccord Genuity, and Oppenheimer.

Tesla analysts forecast

TSLA valuation

Tesla stock price forecast 2023

The latest analysis shows that after a strong rally at the start of 2023, bears have gained momentum. The biggest resistance for the bulls still remains the $208 level which also aligns with the 200 MA on the daily chart. As long as the price remains below this level, my Tesla stock price forecast will stay bearish.

Tesla stock price chart

The upcoming CPI numbers and the rate hike decision by the US Federal Reserve will be the major factors affecting Tesla shares within the next few months. As soon as the stock breaks above the $208 level, I expect another major price rally. However, it appears to be highly unlikely unless the US Federal Reserve pivots in the coming months.

Tesla stock price prediction 2025 and 2030

I expect that TSLA shares will be significantly higher than where they are today by 2025 and 2030. At the time, the company will be highly profitable as the world moves to electric cars. As shown below, analysts at Wallet Investor expect that the stock will be trading at above $300 in 2025. Similarly, Cathie Wood believes that the stock will be over $3,000 by 2030. Ron Baron, who is a very successful fund manager, expects the TSLA stock price to hit $1500 by 2030.

Tesla biggest shareholders

Tesla is a publicly-traded company, meaning that anyone can buy the stock. As mentioned, Elon Musk owns about 17% of the company. At the same time, there are about 1,937 institutional investors who own 41% of the company. This means that retail investors own about 42% of the company. The biggest Tesla shareholders are Blackrock, Vanguard, Capital Group, and Baillie Gifford.