Tesla Stock Price Prediction 2022, 2025, 2030. A Good Investment?

The Tesla stock price has had a difficult start in 2022. The stock is trading at $697, about 25% below its highest level this year. Its price is also 45% below the highest level on record, bringing its market capitalization to more than $723 billion. At its peak, Tesla was valued at over $1 trillion. As a result, Elon Musk net worth has slipped by over $55 billion to about $214 billion.

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Tesla stock latest news

Tesla has made several headlines in the most recent past few months. And most of the news has not been positive for the company. 

First, all indications are that Elon Musk will acquire Twitter. By doing so, Musk will become a CEO of three large companies: Tesla, SpaceX, and Twitter. As a result, there are concerns about whether he will manage to carry out these roles sufficiently.

Second, Tesla decided to increase prices of its vehicles recently. Its most premium vehicles saw a price boost of over $6,000. As a result, there is a likelihood that the company will see slow growth in the coming quarters. 

Third, the company has embraced more cost-cutting measures. For example, it is now slashing the number of its employees. The most recent layoff is that of over 200 employees who work for its self-driving division. 

Meanwhile, Elon Musk recently said that the company was incinerating money as the cost of doing business surges. Finally, the company is now facing substantial competition from the likes of Ford and General Motors.

Another important latest Tesla news is that the company decided to recall about 54,000 cars because of a software glitch. The challenge is that the glitch could cause the cars to disobey traffic lights. However, the impact of this recall on the TSLA stock price is a bit limited.

What is the Tesla market cap? 

The term market capitalization refers to the overall valuation of a company. It is calculated by multiplying a company’s share price and its outstanding shares. For example, according to Yahoo Finance, Tesla has 1 billion outstanding shares. With the Tesla share price trading at $905, the company has a total market valuation of $723 billion.

Elon Musk Tesla ownership

What is Elon Musk net worth?

As the founder of Tesla, Elon Musk is the company’s biggest shareholder. According to Bloomberg, while Musk has been selling his stake in Tesla, he owns about 175 million shares. That means that his stake is worth about 17.6%, bringing his total ownership to more than $95 billion. 

He also has billions of dollars in cash, which he made by selling his stock last year. Notably, he has an interest in SpaceX. Elon Musk’s net worth is estimated to be over $214 billion, making him the wealthiest person globally. However, he has lost about $56 billion of his wealth this year alone, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. He has also taken loans against his shares to acquire Twitter.

Tesla share price history

Tesla launched its initial public offering in 2010. When it went public, the Tesla stock price was trading at a split-adjusted rate of $5. Since then, the TSLA stock has jumped by more than 28,000%, making it one of the best performers in the market.

While the long-term performance of the TSLA share has been good, the journey to the top has not been smooth. As shown below, the stock declined by 38% within a few months in 2015. Similarly, it then dropped by 56% within a few months in 2019. At the time, Elon Musk even warned that he had funds secure to take the company public.

Is Tesla a good investment?

While Tesla is an overvalued stock, there are reasons to believe it is a good investment. First, the company has a good market share in the fast-growing electric vehicle (EV) industry. While more companies are entering the scene, Tesla has maintained its market share. The chart below shows the Tesla market share in EVs.

Tesla market share

Tesla market share

Second, Tesla has several benefits that other companies like Rivian, Lucid, and Nio lack. First, it has manufacturing plants in the most important markets in the industry. It has operations in China, US, and Germany. This means that it can develop and sell cars faster than most manufacturers. 

Third, Tesla has the infrastructure needed to succeed in the EV industry. For example, it has the biggest network of supercharger network. Since range anxiety is real, having that network is highly important.

Additionally, Tesla stock is a good buy because it is the only profitable company in the EV industry. Others like Lucid and Rivian have a long way to become profitable. Most importantly, Tesla has the most advanced software in the industry. The chart below shows the key Tesla profitability metrics.

Is Tesla profitable?

is Tesla profitable?

Is Tesla overvalued?

Most analysts believe that Tesla is an overvalued company. However, most of them justify this valuation because of its market share, revenue and unit growth, and upcoming projects like semi and cybertruck. A DCF valuation on Tesla shows that the stock is highly overvalued. It has a fair valuation of $465 per share, significantly below its current level.

TSLA DCF valuation

Tesla DCF

Meanwhile, analysts’ average estimate of the Tesla stock price target is $934. Those who have a bullish rating are from Credit Suisse, Canaccord Genuity, and Oppenheimer. On the other hand, some of the analysts short the stock are from Barclays, JP Morgan, and Citigroup.

Tesla analysts forecast

tesla analysts

Tesla stock price forecast 2022

The daily chart shows that the Tesla stock price formed what looks like a double-top pattern at about $1,200. The chin of this pattern was at about $884. In price action analysis, this pattern tends to be a warning that more weakness will happen, 

A closer look shows that the stock struggled slightly to move below the chin recently. But it has managed to cross the level. At the same time, the stock has dropped below the 50-day moving average and is trading at the 200-day MA. 

Therefore, there is a likelihood that the shares will make a death cross in the coming months as worries about the Federal Reserve remain. If this happens, the next key support level to watch will be at about $790. A break below this level will open the possibility of it dropping to about $563.

Tesla technical analysis

tesls stock price

Tesla share price analysis (update)

The section above was our previous Tesla share price prediction. As you can see below, this outlook was accurate as the stock is still on a path to $563. The TSLA share price remains below the 25-day and 50-day moving averages and it has formed a triple top pattern. Therefore, the overall outlook of the stock is bearish, with the next target being at $500.

tesla stock price

Meanwhile, the chart below shows the Tesla share price monthly targets by Wall Street analysts. The chart shows that the most optimistic analysts expect Tesla to end the year at more than $1,500, while the pessimists expect it to end the year below $500.

Tesla 2022 forecast by month.

Tesla stock forecast

Tesla stock price prediction 2025 and 2030

I expect that TSLA shares will be significantly higher than where they are today by 2025 and 2030. At the time, the company will be highly profitable as the world moves to electric cars. As shown below, analysts at Wallet Investor expect that the stock will be trading at above $2,500 in 2025. Similarly, Cathie Wood believes that the stock will be over $3,000 by 2030.

tesla stock 2025 forecast

Tesla biggest shareholders

Tesla is a publicly-traded company, meaning that anyone can buy the stock. As mentioned, Elon Musk owns about 17% of the company. At the same time, there are about 1,937 institutional investors who own 41% of the company. This means that retail investors own about 42% of the company. The biggest Tesla shareholders are Blackrock, Vanguard, Capital Group, and Baillie Gifford.