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Week Ahead: CPI and Retail Sales from the US and UK; Chinese Data to Move AUDJPY?

Next week is going to be another busy week in the markets with a handful of economic reports due for release. Of course, with them come opportunities to trade high-probability set-ups.

US CPI and US Retail Sales, ECB Meeting Minutes

On Tuesday, the inflation data from the US for the month of December is due for release. Both the headline CPI and core CPI (excludes volatile items like energy) are expected to print at 0.2%. It will be closely-watched not just by market participants but also the Federal Reserve. The minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting revealed that policymakers find that inflation is far below where they would like it to be.

Then on Thursday, the retail sales report form the US is expected to print at 0.3% for December.

Meanwhile, the only top-tier event for the euro next week is the ECB monetary policy meeting minutes. The report, which is due on Thursday, could be bullish for the euro if it reflects optimism in the economy by policymakers.

EURUSD Daily Outlook

On the daily time frame, EURUSD bounced off support at the rising trend line from connecting the lows of October 1 and November 27. If support holds, the roster of data from the US and euro zone could determine if gains can be sustained all the way to December 2019 highs at 1.1240.

Read our Best Trading Ideas for 2020.

UK CPI and Retail Sales

The UK will also release its own CPI and retail sales reports. On Wednesday, both the headline and core CPI readings for December are seen to come in at 0.2%. Then on Friday, the country’s retail sales report for the same month is estimated to show that consumer spending grew by 0.5% for the month. Excluding the sales of volatile items, the core retail sales figure is eyed at 0.2%.

GBPUSD Weekly Outlook

On the weekly chart of GBPUSD, we can see that the currency pair is already trading above resistance of the falling trend line. It’s currently testing resistance on the 100 SMA and 200 SMA. Better-than-expected data from the UK could help GBPJPY rally to its most recent highs around 1.3520.

Chinese Data Due and Could Move the Aussie

Our forex calendar is blank for economic reports from Australia next week. However, we do have a few data from the country’s largest trading partner. As they often do, Chinese reports could cause volatility on Aussie pairs next week.

China’s trade balance for December is due on Tuesday and it is anticipated to show a trade surplus of 58.238 billion USD. Then on Friday, the Chinese GDP is expected to show a 6.0% uptick in economic growth in Q4 2019 compared to the year before. Meanwhile, retail sales for December is eyed at 7.9% while industrial production is predicted at 5.8%.

AUDJPY Weekly Outlook

Better-than-expected Chinese data are often bullish for the Aussie. Therefore, if we get positive numbers, we may just see AUDJPY rally to its April 2019 highs at 80.37. For one, an inverse head and shoulders pattern has already materialized. The currency pair also bounced off support at the rising trend line (from connecting the lows of August 25, October 6, and December 8). A previous falling trend line also seems to provide the pair with support around the 78.00 psychological handle.