USD/ZAR: Commerzbank Sees Medium Term Uptrend Above 14.58

The South African Rand has continued to weaken sharply against the greenback following the hawkish Fed statement last Wednesday. The USD/ZAR has faltered at the 14.28370 resistance in a choppy session on Monday after three days of sharp gains. 

Commerzbank’s head of technical analysis for FICC assets, Axel Rudolph, predicts that the USD/ZAR pair would turn bullish in the medium term with a rise above 14.6857. Rudolph’s comments come as the USD/ZAR is currently in a corrective rally following the extended downtrend from the 8 March 2021 top.

The Commerzbank analyst sees resistance at the 14.3952/14/5437, with the medium-term bullishness established above the next top at 14.5809/14.6857. This move targets the 200-day moving average at 15.0432, with the March top at 15.1004 serving as an additional target. Commerzbank only sees this outlook invalidated if there is a slip below the 55-day moving average and the early May low at 14.0897/13.9522. The downtrend could continue below the June low at 13.4066, targeting the January 2019 low at 13.2338. 

The hawkish Fed means that the carry trade opportunity between the low-interest US Dollar and higher interest yielding emerging market currencies such as the Rand will start to unwind soon. 

Technical Outlook for USD/ZAR

The 14.28370 must be uncapped for the corrective rally to continue, targeting 14.52955 and 14.71708 initially. Additional targets to the upside are seen at 14.89528 and 15.08661.

On the flip side, rejection at the current resistance and a pullback puts the 14.15360 support at risk. A breakdown of this pivot brings 13.97151 into the picture, with 13.80403 and 13.71791 serving as additional downside targets. Only a breakdown of the 13.37108 low (7 June) allows the downtrend to resume. 

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USD/ZAR Daily Chart

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