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USD/TRY Seems to be on the Cusp of a Major Bullish Breakout


The USD/TRY price is little changed today even after Recep Erdogan changed the composition of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). The Turkish lira is trading at 8.4220 against the US dollar. 

USD/TRY news: In a surprise move, Turkey’s president, Recep Erdogan replaced Oguzgan Ozbas as the deputy governor of the central bank. He was replaced by Semih Tumen, a respected economist who used to work at TED University of Ankara. He was previously an employee of the central bank. 

The latest move came three months after Erdogan replaced Agbal as the Central Bank’s governor in a move that pushed the Turkish lira to the lowest level in months. Indeed, the currency has declined substantially during the current central bank’s governor.

Analysts expect that he will start an easing cycle in the June meeting even as inflation rises. In his note, Erdogan said that he expects that inflation will drop below 10% by the end of the year. It rose to 16% in April. So, what next for the USD/TRY pair?

USD/TRY technical forecast

The four-hour chart shows that the USD/TRY has been in a slow upward trend in the past few months. The currency is a few points below the highest point this month. It has also formed an ascending triangle pattern that is shown in purple. Also, it is being supported by the 25-day and 15-day exponential moving averages (EMA). 

As you will find in our free forex trading course, an ascending triangle is usually a bullish sign. Therefore, the pair will likely have a major bullish breakout as traders eye the next key resistance at 8.60, which is about 2% above the current price. On the flip side, a drop below the support at 8.40 will invalidate this prediction.

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USDTRY chart


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