USD/TRY: Implications of the CRBT Rate Decision

USD/TRY is on a bearish consolidation pattern ahead of the CRBT one-week repo rate decision. On Monday, TURKSTAT released lower-than-expected CPI data. According to the institute, the CPI rose by 17.14% YoY compared to the forecasted 17.30%. The figure was also lower than the previous 16.19%. At the same time, the country’s PPI rose by 35.17% YoY; higher than the previous 31.20%.

With inflation rising at a slow rate, analysts expect CRBT to leave the rates unchanged at 19%. Investors and analysts alike have been keen on the decisions of the Turkish central bank since the replacement of Governor Naci Agbal with Governor Sahap Kavcioglu. Kavcioglu has promised to retain the rates above inflation.  

USD/TRY Technical Outlook

USD/TRY is on a bearish consolidation pattern ahead of the CRBT one-week repo rate. In the previous session, it hit an intraday high of 8.3726 before dropping and consolidating at the current 8.3261. Earlier on, it had hit a hit of 8.3500 before pulling back. On an hourly chart, it is trading along the 25-day EMA and slightly above the 50-day EMA. Even with the bearish consolidation, it is still within the ascending channel.

I expect USD/TRY to surge to Tuesday’s high of 8.3726. Above that resistance level, the next target will be at 8.4000. On the flip side, a move below the lower trendline highlighted in purple will place the support level at 8.3000. Below that, the bears will be looking to retest 8.2500.

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USD/TRY Chart

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