royal dutch shell

Shell and BP Share Price Outlook Amid a Commodity Supercycle

Royal Dutch Shell and BP share prices have risen in the past month helped by the relatively higher oil prices. The two have risen by 8.45% and 7.86% in the past month respectively. 

The overview: BP and Shell are the only two publicly traded oil supermajors in the FTSE 100. The two firms make money by drilling and selling crude oil, natural gas, and other petrochemicals around the world. As a result, the BP and Shell shares tend to do well when oil prices are rising. 

In the past few months, oil prices have rallied. The West Texas Intermediate (WT) has moved from below zero in 2020 to more than $60. Brent has also risen from $15 to the current $65. This has happened because of the rising demand as the world economy reopens. 

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Analysts expect that the uptrend could continue in the near term. They argue that we are now in the third commodity supercycle, which is a situation where their prices rise for a considerable amount of time. Analysts are now focusing on next week’s OPEC+ meeting. 

However, the key risk for Shell and BP is that investors are trying to avoid the energy stocks for their role in climate change. Still, their decisions to boost dividends recently could attract more investors.

Shell share price technical outlook

The daily chart shows that the Shell share price is at 1,443p, which is substantially higher than where it was in October. The shares seem to have formed a double-top pattern. Most notably, the shares are having a similar pattern to the EUR/USD pair yesterday before the bullish breakout. Therefore, in my view, the shares are on the verge of a bullish breakout, potentially to 1,600p. 

Shell shares chart

Shell Share Price

BP share price prediction

The BP share price shows a closer resemblance to that of Shell. The price is approaching the previous high of 311p. It has also moved above the 200-day moving average and is also about to form a double-top pattern. Therefore, the shares may experience a bullish breakout to 350p in the near term. However, since a double top is usually a bearish sign, we should not rule out a drop to the neckline at 250p.

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BP chart

BP share price

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