- The USD/PLN has been climbing steadily since early September. This move stems from overall dollar strength and the National Bank of Poland holding its key rate at 3.75%
- Strong U.S. Treasury yields, weaker Polish retail sales, and the NBP's rate pause all kept the zloty under pressure
- While reaching 4.00 by year-end remains possible, it is not a certainty. That outcome will depend on upcoming NBP decisions, energy prices, and how global risk sentiment shifts.
The US dollar has been steadily gaining on the Polish zloty since early September 2026, with hardly any breaks. By late October, the USD/PLN exchange rate, which started around 3.70 -3.75, had climbed to almost 3.95-3.96.
Just recently, a small dip brought the pair back to about 3.92- 3.93. All told, the dollar’s gained around 9-10% against the zloty this year. Most investors don’t expect the zloty to sustain a recovery through the rest of the fourth quarter.
Why the Dollar Is Dominating
A few economic factors explain why the dollar is so strong. Higher energy prices and firm expectations for US interest rates have powered a wider global dollar rally.
Meanwhile, Poland’s central bank, the National Bank of Poland, has kept its reference rate at 3.75% for several meetings straight. That makes Polish yields less attractive than what you’d find elsewhere, especially since other major central banks have either kept raising rates or signaled more tightening.
Inflation is another big factor. Poland’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit 4.0% in September, with fuel prices jumping a huge 36.1% year-on-year. That puts the real policy rate below zero. Frantisek Taborsky of ING even calls the zloty the region’s most vulnerable currency, pointing out that the EUR/PLN pair has already climbed past 4.40.
In addition, Poland’s recent economic data has not met expectations. Retail sales, for instance, came in weaker than expected, which suggests domestic consumer spending is slowing down. That then dampens growth forecasts for late 2026.
Is There Any Imminent Threat to the Upward Mobility?
The dollar’s strength is the main trend right now, but a few things could interrupt its upward climb.
Poland’s central bank, the Monetary Policy Council, meets November 3-4. ING economists expect them to be patient, believing higher fuel costs are mainly driving inflation.
If the council unexpectedly takes a hawkish stance, say, by signaling an interest rate hike, that would likely strengthen the zloty and push the USD/PLN rate lower.
Better global risk sentiment or a weaker US dollar (if Federal Reserve policy expectations shift) might also challenge this trend.
Momentum indicators, like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are also nearing “overbought” territory. This suggests we might see some short-term profit-taking pullbacks around key technical resistance levels.
Could We See 4.00 Support By Year-End?
Hitting or even just testing the 4.00 level by the end of 2026 is possible, but it’s no sure thing. Technical momentum and the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) continued lack of action could drive the pair higher in the coming weeks. Some short-term analyses point to 3.98 or even 4.00 if the NBP holds its current position.
A test of 4.00 seems plausible if the NBP holds rates and oil prices stay high. But closing the year below this level is also a real possibility, especially if oil prices drop. For a sustained rebound, the pair would need to close back below 3.92. A consistent upward move, though, would need a daily close above 3.95.
The direction things take will depend on the November NBP meeting’s outcome, what they say about inflation, energy price trends, and the US dollar’s overall performance.
The dollar has gotten stronger because of global factors like energy prices and US interest rates. Meanwhile, Poland’s National Bank has kept its key rate at 3.75%, which means the zloty isn’t getting as much yield support.
Those recent gains could turn around if the US dollar softens or investors feel more comfortable taking risks. We might also see a shift if Poland’s central bank (NBP) signals more clearly that it plans to tighten policy, especially if the zloty weakens further or inflation worries pop up again.
It could happen if current trends keep going. But most medium-term forecasts point to a lower level, so hitting 4.00 isn’t a sure bet; a lot depends on different things.