- ECB held 2.5%; BoE decides 5 November.
- Support 0.8360; resistance 0.8453 and 0.8611.
- Bear below 0.8360; bull above 0.8453.
Few other currencies have been as much of a political and economic battleground as the Euro-Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) kept their deposit rate at 2.5% this week, while the Eurozone had an inflation rate of 3.8%. Additionally, ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that she plans on stepping down from her role as President in February of 2027 to Euronews. With the Bank of England next, the chart below matters. Let’s read it together.
Figure 1: EUR/GBP key-level map in navy, red and EU blue, built from published levels (illustrative, not a live feed).
Following the Price Path
The navy line connects two points inverted from GBP/EUR quotes. On 7 October the pair sat near 0.8467, when our GBP/EUR report flagged sterling near one-year highs. By 23 October it had slipped to roughly 0.8373, as Cambridge Currencies noted the ECB reference rate for GBP/EUR at 1.1943, the highest since April 2025.
This matters because the move isn’t random. This pair has declined approximately 1.1% over sixteen days, during which time the pound appreciated, and every single rally was met with selling pressure, which is consistent with classic downtrend price action.
The Levels That Matter
The blue line identifies support at 0.8360 as well as the 100% projection at 0.8336. If it breaks through this area, there are two potential downside targets: 0.8231 and then the lowest point of 2024 (0.8221). To the upside, 0.8453 was former support that has now become resistance and 0.8611 is a significant overhead level.
ActionForex says intraday bias “remains neutral first” but the bigger picture stays bearish while 0.8611 holds. DailyForex’s analyst agrees: “we are clearly in a downtrend”, with a sell zone near 0.85.
Fibonacci provides more detail. The previous decrease from 0.8728 down to 0.8453, as projected from 0.8611, was projected to land at 0.8336, so that’s why it appears on the chart. The 38.2% retracement of the whole decline from the 2025 peak of 0.9267 is much higher up, at 0.8867. This means that buyers will have to do a great deal to fix this structure.
Why Sterling Has the Edge
Our report stated that “this current trend is primarily a result of the weakening Euro, rather than a rapid increase in the strength of the Pound.” One factor driving French borrowing costs is their spread over German borrowing costs which is currently at approximately 155 basis points. After voting 6-3 in September, the Bank of England has kept Bank Rate at 3.75%. It appears as though the Bank of England may raise Bank Rate on November 5th. In addition, there is also fiscal risk added to the mix due to the UK Budget being released on October 28th.
Momentum traders can review our momentum trading guide, while GBP/USD and GBP/INR show wider pound strength.
Scenarios to Plan
Remember that all three possibilities do not have an equal chance of occurring. The system is designed to Favor sellers, however, a hawkish surprise by the Bank of England (BoE) on November 5th may cause some sellers to face short-term pressure. Bulls should wait until they see a reclaim of 0.8453 before starting to celebrate.
- Bullish: reclaiming 0.8453 targets 0.8611.
- Bearish: a close below 0.8360 targets 0.8336, then 0.8231.
- Neutral: chop between 0.8360 and 0.8453 into the BoE.
The November 5th decision is the immediate trigger, and the longer-term bearish structural pattern continues to remain below the 0.8611 level.
DailyForex warns that 0.8350 is where the “bottom falls out”. In the longer term, pay attention to the European Central Bank (ECB) at the end of December and whether France makes any headway with its budget. If either of these things happen, it may cause the euro’s weakness to stop. Investors need to realize that when the EUR/GBP exchange rate falls, it increases the return on investments for those who hold sterling assets in euros, and decreases the return for those who hold euro assets in pounds. Does the Bank of England (BoE) raise interest rates, and will the British pound continue to be successful? Set your stop loss before doing anything else.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EUR/GBP bearish right now?
While price remains under 0.8611 and 0.8453, the structure is bearish; however, the short-term bias is neutral as long as price stays above the support level of 0.8360.
When is the next Bank of England decision?
The next Bank of England announcement will take place on November 5, 2026, and will include a new Monetary Policy Report. The current Bank Rate is 3.75%.
What would break the EUR/GBP downtrend?
The first indication that things are changing will come if we get a daily close higher than 0.8453, but the major challenge to the current bearish trend is at 0.8611.