Next week is going to be a relatively lighter one compared to this past week. However, it does not mean we will not see some action on the charts. Read on for the top-tier events scheduled and a few trade ideas for next week.
RBNZ Governor Orr’s Speech – Tuesday, 1:00 am GMT
The RBNZ has been one of the few central banks which has been mum about how it plans to address the adverse effects of the coronavirus to the economy. On Wednesday, we could get an idea of how dovish or bullish the central bank is when RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr makes a speech.
On the daily time frame of AUDNZD, we can see that it has already broken through resistance at the neckline of its inverse head and shoulders. The currency pair has traded lower in the past couple of trading days. However, it could soon find support at the rising trend line. Reversal candles around 1.0400 could mean that AUDNZD is about to rally. On the other hand, a break of the rising trend line could indicate that the currency pair still has room to trade lower. The next support could be at 1.0300 where it bottomed in January.
AUDNZD, Daily Chart
UK January GDP – Forecast: 0.3% – Wednesday, 9:30 am GMT
The UK’s monthly GDP is due next week. In the past week, the pound rose against some of its counterparts following incoming Governor Bailey’s remarks which hinted that the BOE is not keen on cutting rates. This report should affirm or raise questions about the central bank’s stance.
The weekly time frame of EURGBP suggests that we could see some weakness on the euro soon. The currency pair is testing resistance at the 100 SMA and 200 SMA which coincidentally aligns with the area between the 38.2% and 50% Fib levels. If sellers are able to dominate next week’s trading, EURGBP could soon retest its February lows at 0.8280. On the other hand, a strong close above resistance on the SMAs at 0.8800 could trigger a rally to its August highs at 0.9300.
EURGBP, Weekly Chart
US February CPI – Headline forecast: 0.0%, Core forecast: 0.2% – Wednesday, 12:30 pm GMT
In the Fed’s last interest rate decision, they said that they would be closely monitoring inflation and employment reports. With that said, the upcoming CPI report next week could spark volatility across dollar pairs.
The weekly chart of USDCHF shows that the aggressive sell-off in the past two weeks pushed price below the neckline support of the head and shoulders. If sellers are able to maintain their momentum, the next support level is at 0.9265 where USDCHF bottomed on February 11.
USDCHF, Weekly Chart
ECB Rate Decision – Thursday, 12:45 pm GMT
Following the rate cuts of its counterparts, the ECB is expected to reduce its official cash rate next week to support the euro zone economy, particularly Italy. The country is ranked third with the most number of coronavirus cases in the world. In the past couple of weeks, there has already been significant disruptions in business brought about by travel restrictions. There are even speculations that ECB President Lagarde would announce more easing measures on top of a rate cut.
The weekly chart of EURJPY suggests that the sell-off could be over soon as it could find support at the broken trend line around 116.80.
EURJPY, Weekly Chart
This assumption also seems to be supported by the daily time frame. The currency pair has formed a head and shoulders pattern which is considered as a bearish indicator. However, the near-term support also seems to coincide with 116.80. This price served as support for the currency pair in October.
On the other hand, if there are enough buyers to push EURJPY above the second shoulder, we may not even need to wait for EURJPY to fall to the broken trend line before it begins trading higher.