The USDRUB pair is enjoying high intraday volatility as the US presidential elections remain inconclusive. Swinging vote totals across several vital states mean that the outcome remains undecided. Yesterday’s article on the pair had quoted a Rabobank analyst as saying that a Biden victory could pressurize the Ruble as a result of the threat of sanctions and lower oil prices. This is expected to be a medium-term to long-term effect and may not be seen in the short term.
Presently, Democrat Joe Biden leads in the electoral college vote, but trails in several key states. However, many of these key states are states in which a large number of potentially-Democrat leaning mail-in votes are yet to be counted, which has opened several doors for Biden to the White House, while shutting some for the incumbent Donald Trump.
The USDRUB tanked at the start of the session as President Trump outperformed opinion polls once more, with the race being very tight and too close to call at the moment. This move allowed the pair to target the support levels at the $78.195 price level.
There is still the option of the courts deciding the outcome, as President Trump has raised the alarm over mail-in votes. In a speech made last night, he promised his supporters that he would contest results at the Supreme Court. This is considered a scenario which could promote safe-haven entry into the USD and promote exit from the Ruble, which is linked to the risky crude oil commodity.
Technical Levels to Watch
Today’s bearish candle served to confirm the dark cloud cover formed by the daily candles of Monday and Tuesday. However, the bounce on the 78.195 support has sent the pair back towards the upside. Price action remains choppy and has the potential to swing a lot more intraday. A retest and breakdown of 78.195 brings in 76.511 and potentially 75.974 as the nearest downside targets.
Conversely, a break of the nearest resistance at 79.931 allows for a push towards 80.669, with 81.377 and 82.321 lining up as potential upside targets. Near-term, more volatility is expected on the pair, and we could continue to have whipsaws until an outcome of the election is known.
USDRUB Daily Chart