The monthly US Consumer Confidence report as published by the Conference Board shows that consumer confidence in the US for the month of September was worse than what analysts had predicted. The Consumer Confidence Index slumped to 125.1 in September as against the consensus figure of 134.1. The previous Consumer Confidence index figure was also revised downwards to 134.2.
The initial market reaction was a weakening of the US Dollar across all major pairs, with the USDJPY dropping sharply by 30 pips. One the back of the worse-than-expected report, the USDJPY has now violated the lower border of the up channel on the 4-hour chart. However, the candle is still active and we need to see a 3% penetration close to the downside to confirm the breakdown move.
A fulfillment of the downside break conditions on the USDJPY 4-hour chart could open the door for further downside to 107.19 (Sep 10 low) and below this level, 106.67 (highs of Aug 15 – 23 in role reversal).
On the flip side, a failure of the breakdown move on the USDJPY chart could see a return to the upside to test the 107.70 price area (July 19 high and Sep 16 low in role reversal).Download our latest quarterly market outlookfor our longer-term trade ideas.
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