Today, the Canadian dollar is trading slightly lower on softer Crude oil prices following comments from the OPEC+ meeting.
The Canadian dollar is also giving back gains from its impressive winning streak from May 31 to June 28 when the USDCAD slid from 1.3566 and reached a low of 1.3059. However, the weekend’s political events caused the USD to stop declining, and the crude oil bull trend has stopped in its tracks, the latter being an important driver for the CAD.
Friday’s Canadian NFP will be key for the USDCAD, but also the US ADP employment report on Wednesday, and the US NFPs.
Technically, it looks like the Canadian dollar is ready to give up more of the last few week’s gains, or at least trade sideways for a few days. The next natural resistance level is the June 21 high at 1.3229, and the same level acted as support on June 10, and it would be fair to assume that the price might find some resistance around that level. The nearest support level is the February 1 low at 1.3069, however, I suspect that a break to the June low of 1.3059 is needed to resume the downtrend. Until that happens I think it is fair to assume that USDCAD will trade sideways between the June low and June 21 high.
On a break to the June 21 high, the USDCAD pair might revisit the June 18 high, while a break to the June low at 1.3059 might trigger a slide to the next support level at the October 18, 2018 low at 1.2919.
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