UBS stock price traded 5% lower on Tuesday after it lowered some of its critical estimates for 2020-2022, despite posting Q4 2020 net profits of $722million versus forecasts of $632million. Full-year profit came in at $4.3billion, which was 10% lower than estimates.
The critical metrics for UBS which did not meet 2019 expectations and were thus downgraded are as follows:
- cost-to-income ratio: UBS had projected a cost-to-income ratio of 77% for 2019 and 72% by Dec 2021. The cost-to-income ratio came in at 78.9%, which was higher than estimates. The bank has now raised the cost-to-income ratio forecast to between 75%-78% in 2022.
- Return on capital: UBS’s projections were for returns on capital to stay at 15% in 2019 and 17% in 2021. However, the actual return-on-capital for 2019 stood at 12.4% and did not meet the expectations of the bank. UBS has scaled back estimates on this metric for 2020-2022 to 12%-15%.
Read our Best Trading Ideas for 2020.
Technical Outlook for UBS Stock Price
The picture on the daily chart shows that UBS stock price activity is now within a rising wedge pattern, with the recent higher highs on the chart contrasting with the lower lows and failure swing on the RSI indicator. The technical pattern and the divergence signal, coupled with the negative fundamentals of the stock, all point to a downward trajectory for UBS.
A breakdown of the rising wedge by a 3% penetration on the weekly chart or a double successive candle close below the wedge’s lower border will prime UBS stocks for a drop towards 19 December 2018, 3 May/7 Nov 2019 highs at 12.54 initially. The UBS stock price levels of 12.24 and 11.74 are further downside targets, with 11.74 being the most likely candidate that satisfies the end target for the measured move from the wedge’s lower border.
The only upside target visible for now is at 13.56, but this will require a complete negation of the fundamental and technical picture to be actualized.