Ocado Share Price is Breaking Out – But Valuation Concerns Remain


Ocado share price is up by 0.15% today, continuing a trend that started on Monday, when the shares were trading at 2021p. The shares are now trading at 2207p, which is the highest level since June this year. So, does the new upward trend make Ocado stock a buy?

Ocado valuation not cheap

One thing that strikes you when you look at Ocado is its valuation. As of this writing, the company has a hefty valuation of more than £16.4 billion, making it the second-biggest tech company in the UK after Flutter.

A deeper dive shows that Ocado has an enterprise value (EV) to sales ratio of 8. This is, by far, higher than that of Amazon, which has a ratio of 3.4.

Similarly, a look at Ocado’s income statement shows more problems in the company. For example, the firm has made a profit in one of the last four years. It had a net loss of more than 211 million pounds in 2019 and 44 million in the previous year. In the most recent quarter, Ocado’s revenue rose but the company also made a loss.

Broadly, Ocado’s story makes sense as more people focus on online shopping. For starters, the firm makes money in the UK through its partnership with Marks and Spencer. It also makes money by partnering with other retailers to offer them their fulfilment services. The best-known example of this is in the US, where it has partnered with Kroger.

The company offers this service by building the fulfilment centres and then taking a commission from the partners. In fact, this is where most of its funds go, since it requires around £30 million for every centre. And, the firm has already signed 58 of those fulfilment deals but how it will make money in each of these deals is not yet known.

So, is Ocado stock a buy?

Bulls believe that Ocado share price is cheap, when you consider its unique business model of leveraging both online and offline sales. Some of these bulls refer to the firm as the Microsoft of Retail. However, there is also a group of vocal bears who don’t buy Ocado’s story in the age of Amazon.

Data compiled by Marketbeat shows that analysts have mixed opinion about Ocado share price. On the one hand, there are those at Bank of America who believes that the shares are cheap. They have a target of 2,230p. Those at Berenberg, Citi, and Peel Hunt have a buy rating on the stock. On the other hand, there are those at BNP Paribas and Investec who believe that the shares are due for a correction.

Ocado stock price analysts forecasts

Ocado forecast by analysts

Ocado share price outlook

The daily chart below shows that Ocado share price has been in a strong upward trend this year. That is because, with more people staying at home, the thinking is that more people will shift to online shopping. The shares are above the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages. Also, they are struggling to move above the important resistance level of 2200p. Nonetheless, the outlook, at least in the near term is that Ocado stock will continue to rise as bears target the all-time high of 2,254.

On the flip side, a move below 2000p will invalidate this trend. This price has an important psychological value meaning that it will signify that there are more bears in the market.

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Ocado Share Price forecast

Ocado Share Price

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