GBPINR, is a popular exotic currency pair in the forex market. Investors remain keen on the economic health of both economies and the central banks’ approach to deal with the heightened inflationary pressures. With this in mind, this article will focus on GBP to INR forecast for the period between 2022 and 2025.
Between 1998 and 2002, GBPINR was largely trading within a range of between 64.10 and 72.35 rupees. Subsequently, it rallied to a high of 89.60 rupees in late 2006 before returning to the aforementioned range in 2010.
Between April 2010 and August 2013 was characterized by a steady uptrend that saw the exotic pair hit an all-time high of 106.96 rupees. This was followed by downward pressure to a five-year low of 79.53 rupees as of April 2017.
With the subsequent rallying, GBPINR has been holding steady above 80 for five years. Indeed, the psychological level of 100 has offered steady support to the currency pair since the beginning of 2021. At its current level of 101.98, it is 3.66% below the 6-year high it hit in April 2021 at 105.25 rupees.
GBPINR has been holding steady above 80 for five years with the subsequent rallying. Indeed, the psychological level of 100 has offered steady support to the currency pair since the beginning of 2021. However, at its current level of 101.40, it is 3.12% below the 6-year high it hit in April 2021 at 105.25 rupees.
GBPINR latest news
Similar to other financial assets, fundamental analysis is at the core of a viable GBP to INR forecast. The key drivers of the currency pair’s price movements are:
India’s Inflation Rate
Data released on Monday showed that India’s WPI inflation eased slightly to 12.96% in January 2022 compared to 13.56% in December 2021 YoY. Nonetheless, the rates have remained in double digits since April 2021. Interestingly, it was at 2.51% at the beginning of 2021.
The heightened inflation has pushed the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to maintain an accomodative policy. Unlike the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, RBI is keen on supporting economic growth even if that means higher inflation in the coming months. In its latest interest rate decision, the central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4%.
As part of the short-medium term GBP to INR forecast, RBI’s dovish stance in the latest interest rate decision will likely boost the currency pair.
UK Inflation data
Data released earlier on Tuesday by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) showed that wage growth in the UK dropped from 3.8% to 3.7%. Besides, the claimant count dropped by 31,900 compared to the previous decline of 51,600.
The data comes a day before the UK consumer prices data scheduled for release on Wednesday and retail sales on Friday. Employment and inflation figures are crucial for the Bank of England.
Earlier in February, the central bank enacted its first consistent interest rate hike since 2004 in an effort to deal with the heightened inflationary pressures. BoE expects inflation to reach 7.25% in April. The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee agreed to increase the borrowing costs from 0.25% to 0.5%. Granted, some members of the committee proposed an even higher rise to 0.75%.
Analysts expect BoE to further hike interest rates to 1% by May and a further 1.5% by November 2022. Prior to last week’s interest rate decision, the markets did not forecast these hikes to be enacted before March 2023.
By turning more hawkish than expected, BoE’s decision boosted GBP to INR to a three-month high of 102.00 rupees. While the pair has since pulled back, the central bank’s hawkish turn will likely continue to offer support to the currency pair in coming weeks.
When will GBP to INR increase?
Wallet Investor’s GBP to INR forecast 2022 is rather bullish. According to the firm, the exotic currency pair will be at 104.29 rupees by mid-year. It will likely rally further to 105.98 rupees by the end of 2022.
GBP to INR forecast 2022
GBP to INR forecast 2022 is founded on the BoE and RBI’s monetary policies, and the overall health of both economies. On the one hand, RBI will likely turn less dovish in coming months as part of its efforts to deal with inflationary pressures. Such a situation would curb GBPINR upward potential. At the same time, the aggressive tightening of BoE’s monetary policy is expected to boost the currency pair.
Besides, as the leading recipient of remittances worldwide, investors will also be keen on the flow of funds into the country in coming months. According to Trading Economics, remittances in the Asian country will likely increase to $14.8 billion in the end of the current quarter.
In the past year, it dropped from $14.35 billion in the second quarter to $13.66 billion in the third quarter. A rise in remittances is likely to strengthen the Indian rupee; easing GBPINR rallying.
GBPINR technical analysis
On a daily chart, GBPINR is trading above the 25 and 50-day exponential moving averages. It is also trading above the long-term 200-day EMA. At the same time, the formation of an ascending channel points to further gains in the ensuing sessions.
In the immediate term, GBP to INR forecast is for the pair to find resistance at 102.00. Subsequently, it may remain within a range with 101.04 as the horizontal channel’s lower border. Notably, the aforementioned support level is at the point of convergence for the 50 and 200-day EMAs.
If the 50-day EMA crosses over the 200-day EMA to the upside(golden cross), the bulls will likely have an opportunity to raise the price further to 102.95. On the flip side, a death cross, where the 50-day EMA crosses over the 200-day EMA to the downside (death cross), GBPINR may decline further towards the range’s lower border. Below the range’s lower border, 100.70 will be a level worth looking out for.
GBP to INR forecast 2025
Wallet Investor’s GBP to INR forecast 2025 is bullish. According to the firm, the exotic currency pair will hit a new record high of 114.50 rupees as at the beginning of 2025. It will rally further to 117.89 by June and reach 119.60 by the end of the year.
Nonetheless, it is important to incorporate further research rather than trading solely based on analysts’ predictions. Indeed, one of the principles of successful trading is to stick to the adopted trading strategies regardless of how tempting the forecast is.
In the medium and long-term, the economic health of India and the UK, coupled with geopolitics and monetary policies, will continue to shape GBP to INR forecast 2025.