EURUSD
EURUSD

EUR/USD Is Looking for Direction – Both Bulls and Bears Have a Case

Summary:
  • EUR/USD makes both a bullish and a bearish case. What will break first - the neckline of an inversed head and shoulders pattern or a bearish triangle?

The EUR/USD pair bounced from below 1.20 but does not act as bid against the dollar as other pairs do – for example, the GBP/USD or the AUD/USD. Various explanations exist, one of them being that Europe is still the region most affected by the pandemic, and many of its economies are in some kind of a lockdown mode.

Yesterday we saw the inflation data in the European Union and the Euro are. Core inflation jumped by most on record, reaching already the ECBs target. The EUR/USD pair, however, did not react for the simple reason that the move higher was priced in.

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Jerome Powell’s testimony in front of the Senate Banking Committee yesterday failed to bring much change in the EUR/USD pair. Other pairs did react, but not this one.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

From a technical point of view, we can make both a bullish and a bearish case. The bullish one calls for an inversed head and shoulders pattern that has a measured move above the January highs. The bearish case considers a triangle that should act as a continuation pattern, with the price currently testing the opposite trendline. Bears may want to wait for a break below the lower trendline and target new lows below 1.1950. On the other hand, if the inversed head and shoulders pattern holds, the chances are that the EUR/USD will make a new high.

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Dow Jones futures are 0.25% lower at 25,434. The S&P 500 futures are 0.18% lower at 3,042, while Nasdaq futures are 0.07% lower at 9,966.

EUR/USD Price Forecast