The EURUSD pair has been in a holding pattern in the past few days as the market wait for the March nonfarm payrolls data. The pair did not even move with the manufacturing PMI data and the ADP nonfarm private payrolls yesterday. While the latter number is watched closely, it is rarely a market mover because the data tends to differ significantly with the official employment numbers.
The numbers that will matter for the EURUSD pair is the jobless claims data that will be released later today. Economists polled by Refinitiv suggest that the number could rise by more than 3.5 million while those at Goldman Sachs believe the number will be much higher. A bigger-than-expected number could send signals about how bad the US economy is in.
Still, the most important numbers will be released tomorrow when the Labour Department releases the official employment numbers. The numbers are expected to show that more than 450k people were removed from payrolls last week. They are also expected to show that the unemployment rate rose to 4%.
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EURUSD Forecast
The volatility on the EURUSD pair has eased as the Average True Range shows. This could be a calm before the storm that will happen after the US releases jobless claims and NFP data. Still, looking at the two-hour chart shows the likely direction in which the pair will go.
The chart shows that the pair is in the fourth phase of the Elliot Wave. It is also along the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level, which is an important indicator. This means that there is a possibility that the EURUSD pair will move lower to complete the Elliot Wave. Meanwhile, we see that the pair has formed a head and shoulders patter. Also, this is an indicator that the pair has more downside to go.
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