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EURUSD Bearish Flag: Can Forex News on US GDP to Trigger a Sell-Off?


Without top-tier data from Europe nor significant developments on the US-China trade negotiations, EURUSD traded within a tight 18-pip range yesterday. The currency pair closed with modest gains at 1.1019 from its open price of 1.1011.

The only data that was released for the euro was the German Gfk Consumer Climate index which printed as expected at 9.7. Across the Atlantic, data from the US were mixed as the much-awaited consumer confidence report missed forecasts and so did the Richmond Manufacturing Index when it came in at -1 versus 6. New home sales, on the other hand, was better than the expected 708,000 consensus when it printed at 733,000.

Forex News Due From the US Today

For today, direction on EURUSD will likely be dictated by market sentiment and data from the US as there are no forex news scheduled for the euro.

At 1:30 pm GMT, the preliminary reading of the US GDP for Q3 2019 is eyed at 1.9%. Along with this report, durable goods orders is seen at 0.2% while the core reading is estimated at -0.5%. Meanwhile, unemployment claims has been forecasted at 223,000.

Then at 2:45 pm GMT, the Chicago PMI for November is expected to show improving business conditions in the area. The consensus is up at 47.2 from last month’s reading of 43.2.

At 3:00 pm GMT, the core PCE price index is anticipated to print a 0.2% uptick while personal spending is seen at 0.3%.

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EURUSD Outlook

EURUSD has been hovering around support at the 1.1000 handle. In fact, the 4-hour chart shows that it has formed a bearish flag. A break below the currency pair’s November 25 low could push it to its November 14 lows at 1.0987. If that does not hold, EURUSD could be on its way to re-test its yearly lows at 1.0883.

On the other hand, if buyers are able to defend 1.1000 and they gain momentum, we could see the pair bounce to resistance at last week’s highs around 1.1080.Download our latest quarterly market outlook for our longer-term trade ideas.

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