At 1.30 am UTC, the latest version of the Australian employment report will be released. The market expectation is for employment change to have dropped from 88.7K to 35.2K, with a reduction in the unemployment rate from 5.8% to 5.7%.
The expectation itself is more of a conflict; a smaller number of jobs added, and yet a lower rate of unemployment. This report comes just as the JobKeeper program is due to end on April 19. Leading up to this report, the latest employment data out of the US and Canada have been stellar. This is not entirely surprising, as the stimulus packages that form the QE programs of central banks in these countries are kicking in, supported by aggressive coronavirus vaccination drives.
Australia suffered a glitch in its vaccination program when the EU blocked exports of a critical vaccine to the country. This may have halted some progress on the employment front and may explain why the market projections for employment change appear guarded. In any case, the upside is there for the AUD/USD to lose.
Technical Outlook for AUD/USD
If the employment data come in positive for the Aussie Dollar (employment change of at least 60K and unemployment rate of 5.7% or below), then the AUD could extend its advance to target the 0.7800 psychological resistance level. Above this area, 0.78911 serves as an additional resistance, with 0.78415 serving as a pitstop.
On the other hand, anything short of the market consensus on employment change, or unemployment that stays at 5.8% or higher, could lead to a decline in the pair. This decline targets the 0.76555 support initially, with 0.75859 and 0.75141 serving as additional downside targets.