XAGUSD: memories of 2008 suggest silver price is gearing to a breakout

Silver price (XAGUSD) has been relatively boring in the past few days. The price has continued to move in a sideways direction as investors wait for a catalyst. In this report, I will show a few parallels that suggest what direction the metal will break out in.

Why silver price has been stagnant

Silver is not the only precious metal that has been stagnant in the past few days. Indeed, gold price has been stagnant near its 7-year high in the past few days as investors assess the state of the economy. Silver tends to move in the same direction as gold. Another reason why XAGUSD has been unchanged is that there is simply no major news to drive the price upwards.

However, a closer look at the entire situation shows that the price will break out in the upside. First, in the 2008/9 financial crisis, the price of silver dropped to $8.36 as shown below. This year, the price was pushed to a multi-year low of $11.64 when the coronavirus was named a pandemic. After the 2008/9 crisis, the price rallied to almost $50. In this period, the price of gold also reached an all-time high.

Silver price parallels to 2008 financial crisis

Silver 2008 parallelsPart of the reason why the silver price jumped so much after the 2008/9 crisis was the reaction of the Fed and the US government. In the past crisis, the Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet by more than $600 billon. This year alone, the Federal Reserve has already printed more than $2 trillion to support the economy.

Again, the US government offered a fiscal stimulus of about $700 billion in the past crisis. This year alone, the government has offered more than $2.6 trillion and there is talk of an additional $3 trillion. The same is happening around the world. For example, Japan and the European Union are already implementing open-ended QE policies.

As I have written before, most wealthy people have already started putting a substantial amount of their wealth in precious metals.

Another catalyst for silver price is the upcoming demand as countries reopen. As you recall, the world economy had its best period after the 2008/9 crisis. Unless another pandemic comes up, I expect that the world economy will bounce back stronger than ever before. This will lead to more demand for silver-made products, including 5G.

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Silver price (XAGUSD) technical outlook

On the daily chart below, we see that silver price has moved up slightly and is now above the 50-day exponential moving average. The price is also a few points below 15.81, the highest point on April 14. Also, it is slightly above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. I expect the bulls to remain in control as they attempt to move above 15.81 and test the 61.8% retracement level.

On the other hand, a move below the important support of 14.55 will stop this thesis. This price is along the lowest swing on April 21 and is also slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

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