The USD/TRY hit new record highs this Wednesday after President Recep Erdogan of Turkey hinted at future rate cuts. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) meets later this month, and TD Securities’ economists are already banking on a 350bps easing cycle by August, starting with a 100bps rate cut this month.
This move could send the USD/TRY to new record highs and well within reach of the firm’s 8.85 price projection by the end of the 3rd quarter.
Technical Levels to Watch
There has been a pullback from the intraday advance. This means that despite the intraday violation, the resistance at 8.57488 remains intact. Only a break of this level to the upside sends the USDTRY to new record highs, targeting the intraday high at 8.7014 before the 8.8000 psychological level comes into view.
On the other hand, the price pattern on the daily chart presently favours a correction. This correction has to come from the breakdown of the rising wedge pattern, targeting a potential measured move to 8.0406. This corrective decline has to take out 8.3698 and 8.1274 along the way to achieve the price objective from the pattern. This may then allow fresh bids to come in between 7.9563 and 8.0406.