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USDCAD Retreats from Monthly Highs, Despite Better Retail Sales Data


USDCAD retreats today breaking a five-day streak after mixed macro data from US. The US advance retail sales for October came in at 0.3% above expectations of 0.2%,  the Retail Sales Control Group came in at 0.3% in line with forecasts.  The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at 2.9 below expectations of 5 in November. The United States Industrial Production (month over month) came in at -0.8% below expectations of -0.4% in October, while the Capacity Utilization came in at 76.7%, below forecasts of 77.1% in October.

In Canada the Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities came in at $4.76B for September, the previous reading was at $4.99B, while the Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities came in at $-2.4B versus the $-4.71B previous reading.

Crude oil trades higher today providing extra support to the loonie.

Bank of Canada the previous week kept interest rates unchanged at 1.75% as widely expected by markets. BAC pointed out that the risks are to the downside with escalating China-US trade tensions, weak business investment and falling crude oil prices. BoC will possibly wait until the Q1 next year before easing. Loonie the last month supported by high crude oil price, Canada’s main export product, and higher interest rates.

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USDCAD Technical Analysis

USDCAD corrects today from monthly highs as the pair failed to break the 200-day moving average. USDCAD outlook remains bullish despite today’s pullback.

On the downside, USDCAD first support stands at 1.3218 the daily low followed by    1.3207 the 50-day moving average, a break below might drive prices down to 1.3199 the 100-day moving average.

On the upside, first resistance stands today’s top at 1.3251, a move above might threat the next resistance at 1.3275 the   20000-day moving average, while the top from October 11th at 1.3299 will provide extra offers.More content