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USD/TRY Forecast Ahead of Turkish GDP Numbers


USD/TRY has eased ahead of the Turkish GDP data on Monday. Analysts expect the country’s economy to have expanded by 6.7% in the first quarter and 5.5% on a year-on-year basis. Last week, President Recep Erdogan noted that passed on preliminary data, the released GDP numbers would highlight strong economic growth in the first quarter.

The GDP forecasts are founded on the fact that industrial production in the country was largely exempt from the enacted lockdown measures. As such, industrial output rose by 12.3% in Q1’21 on a year-on-year basis. However, the economy may contract in the second quarter due to the full lockdown enacted earlier in May, and the tight financial conditions in the country.

USD/TRY will also be reacting to the US bond yields. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields are at 1.58, down by 0.77%. This is a decline from Friday’s intraday high of 1.62. the 5 and 30-day Treasury yields have also declined by 1.46% and 0.34% respectively. The rebounding of the yields will be a bullish catalyst for the currency pair as they tend to boost the value of the US dollar.

USDTRY technical outlook

USD/TRY is up by 0.06% at 8.5721 after ending last week at 8.5671. Since the beginning of May, the currency pair has surged by about 3.34%. On a two-hour chart, it is trading above the 25 and 50-day exponential moving averages. I expect the pair to rally to Friday’s intraday high of 8.6124. However, it may experience some resistance at around 8.5892 before moving higher. On the flip side, it may decline to find support at 8.5348 along the 25-day EMA.

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