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USD/TRY Forecast Ahead of the Turkish Retail Sales


USD/TRY is on a consolidation pattern ahead of the Turkish retail sales. Investors will be keen on whether the released numbers will come in higher than the previous 4.6% YoY and 3.4% MoM. The data comes a few days after the CBRT interest rate decision. The central bank left the one-week repo rate unchanged at 19%. Analysts expect the bank to lower the rates in Q3’21.

Besides, the country’s consumer price index (CPI) rose by 1.68% in April. The figure was higher than 1.08% in March but lower than the forecasted 1.80%. The producer price index (PPI) also rose by 4.34% MoM compared to the prior 4.13%.

USD/TRY will also be reacting to the US JOLTs job openings data. Analysts expect a reading of 7.500 million compared to February’s 7.367 million.

USDTRY Technical Outlook

USD/TRY is consolidating after rising from Monday’s intraday low of 8.2306. At the time of writing, it was up by 0.07% at 8.2794. In the previous week, the formation of a head-and-shoulder pattern signalled a potential decline. The pair dropped to the week’s low of 8.2247.

The ascending trend line, which is highlighted in black, is a sign that USD/TRY is rebounding. On a two-hour chart, it is trading slightly above the two and four-week exponential moving averages. The currency pair will have its price rise for as long as it remains above the trend line.

I expect it to continue trading sideways ahead of the Turkish retail sales. The data may push the price to 8.2500. However, I expect it to continue rebounding to 8.3380. A move above that will place the next target at 8.3714.

This thesis will be invalidated by a move below the ascending trend line. If that happens, the levels to look out for will be 8.2000 and 8.1500.


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