- The Tesla share price lost some ground on the day as global risk aversion took hold of the markets amid concerns about the capex ramp.
Current price action
The Tesla share price is currently trading lower in the New York session, down 3.59%, as the risk-sensitive Nasdaq reacted negatively to the new plans unveiled by CEO Elon Musk. This is risk aversion Thursday, with the current stalemate in US-Iran talks and ship seizures heightening geopolitical tensions. Oil is back above $100 per barrel, and the tech stocks are down, following their Indian counterparts, which sold off hard on Wednesday.
Tesla is currently trading around $371.41 today after clawing back on some of the earlier session losses. However, the bigger story is not the risk-averse market environment, but the company’s guidance on capital expenditure for AI projects and the negative cash flow for FY2026.
Tesla Share Price: What just happened?
Tesla is no longer just trading as an auto or EV stock, but also as an AI entity. The capex of several AI companies has come under recent scrutiny, with markets questioning whether the spending would translate into a significant difference in profits down the road.
According to Reuters reports, Tesla plans to increase its 2026 capex budget by ~25%. The $25 billion capex ramp is to boost investment in AI, robotics, and custom chips, all of which are linked to the company’s longer-term ambitions of realizing robotaxis, humanoid robots, and unsupervised, autonomous, self-driving vehicles.
In its Q1 2026 update, Tesla also outlined plans to advance its investment in AI infrastructure, while also preparing production lines for the Cybercab and Megapack 3. The company also plans to advance its work related to robotics and the Robotaxi.
Tesla Share Price Catalysts
1. Capex Details + Guidance Follow-through: Tesla’s recent capex ramp will bring many questioning investors to the table. How will they interpret this spending ramp? Will it be viewed as a productive investment (long-term bullishness) or as a cash drag (bearish)?
2. Any Robotaxi rollout updates / regulatory signals Even more of a catalyst are any headlines on the rollout of the unsupervised autonomous self-driving vehicles, typified in the Robotaxi.
3. Macro risk appetite: Tesla is a high-beta mega-cap stock that responds with sharp moves whenever there is a swing in market sentiment.
Tesla Share Price: Macro Drivers
1. Near-term Valuation vs Future Spend: the market is trying to gauge the company’s valuation based on current stats (drop in vehicle deliveries), with the company’s decision to spend more now against future returns (increased capex spend). This is capable of bucking the trend and shifting sentiment even if company fundamentals are solid.
2. FSD/Robotaxi Execution Risk: Before users finally get to see the Robotaxis on the roads following full-scale deployment, Tesla has to push through several production and regulatory obstacles. Reuters notes Tesla continues to push Robotaxi expansion plans while also working behind the scenes to secure the necessary regulatory nods.
3. Competition to core auto business: Other companies are also in the race to develop autonomous self-driving cards. How the company intends to navigate the increase in capex, coupled with negative cash flow amid a widening competition spectrum remains to be seen.
Tesla Share Price Forecast Scenarios
Base case: Tesla to remain in a choppy trade as traders try to make sense of the capex ramp while also focusing on the other headlines.
Bull case: the bull case scenario will play out when there is clarity on the scalable progress of the Robotaxi. This could also make the markets more receptive of the AI capex ramp. Furthermore, improvement in globa risk sentiment will help the stock.
Bear case: If markets react negatively to the capex ramp and the headlines around the Robotaxi do not point to scalable progress, Tesla is likely to get sold off. Coming on the back of the drop in vehicle deliveries, the decline could be more than the markets bargained for.
Tesla Share Price: Technical Outlook
The daily candle has breached the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 5 June 2025 – 19 December 2025 upswing at 386.02. However, intraday rejection by the bulls keeps the breakout in abeyance. The bears need more forceful action to reclaim the 339.77 support (70.5% Fibonacci retracement), with a breakdown targeting the demand zone at 303.94-292.83.
On the flip side, a recovery above the 416.10 resistance (11 March 2026 high) is required to sustain the recovery and aim to reclaim the all-time high at 498.83. However, there is a confluence of highs around the 460.00 mark; this is likely to serve as a pitstop for such a move.
