- Tesco shares successfully crossed above their 200-day moving average on Monday, February 9, reaching an intraday high of GBX 455.60.
- The grocery giant is expanding its Express network by 70 stores, strategically snapping up five premium sites formerly occupied by Amazon Fresh.
- With grocery inflation falling to 4% (the lowest since April 2025) and Tesco holding its highest market share since 2015, analysts are eyeing a return to 52-week highs.
Tesco Shares Cross the 200-Day Trend Line: Building the Foundation
Tesco (LSE:TSCO) staged a significant technical move on Monday, February 9, passing above its 200-day moving average of GBX 438.15. The stock traded as high as GBX 453.60 on strong volume of over 9.3 million shares, marking a clear shift in momentum after the “January hangover” that followed its Christmas trading update.
This breakout is technically significant because the 200-day line often acts as a long-term “trend filter.” While the stock faced volatility in January as sales growth slightly missed high expectations, it has since built a solid floor. Following a 9% gain over the last month, the stock is now testing resistance levels that could pave the way for a rally back toward the 475p–480p range.
Spring’s Coming: Falling Inflation and Market Dominance
The coming months provide a perfect “Goldilocks” environment for the UK’s largest grocer. Easing grocery inflation, which fell to 4% in January, is providing a much-needed boost to profit margins. For a volume-driven business like Tesco, this allows for continued investment in its “Aldi Price Match” scheme while still driving its projected £3.1 billion annual profit.
Tesco enters this spring with a dominant 28.7% market share, its highest level in over a decade. This scale provides a massive competitive advantage. While we previously analyzed how high capex “spooked” Amazon investors, Tesco’s efficiency-led growth is having the opposite effect.
Analysts from Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan maintain “Buy” ratings with targets as high as GBX 490, citing the company’s ability to squeeze competitors like Asda and Morrisons.
Technical Outlook: Is it Time to Buy the Dip?
From a technical lens, the trend has shifted in favor of the bulls:
- Immediate Support: GBX 436–438. This zone aligns with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. As long as the price holds here, the spring rally is intact.
- Resistance Zone: GBX 465–480. A break above 465p (the analyst consensus target) would likely trigger a fast move to the 52-week high of 480.90p.
Conclusion: The Road to New Highs
Tesco’s decision to snap up Amazon’s failed sites while maintaining its £3.1 billion profit guidance has clearly “calmed the tape” for UK investors. With grocery inflation falling and major insiders like Ken Murphy adding to their positions, it is very plausible the stock will challenge fresh 52-week highs before the summer.
Tesco Share Price FAQs
The stock is rising due to a technical breakout above the 200-day moving average and positive sentiment following store expansion plans and insider share purchases.
Analysts have set a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating with an average price target of GBX 465, though some targets range up to GBX 490.
Yes, both CEO Ken Murphy and CFO Imran Nawaz recently acquired 11,961 shares each at a price of 418p, signaling strong internal confidence.