Rolls Royce Share Price: Are Analysts Too Optimistic?

London FTSE 100

Up by more than 3.90%, Rolls Royce share price is among the best-performing in the FTSE 100 index today. It has only been beaten by GVC Holdings, British Airways owner, IAG, and Informa, that are up by more than 4%. The stock is up for the second straight day and is trading at 275p, which is significantly higher than yesterday’s low of 211p.

Rolls Royce problems continues

Rolls Royce share price has been in trouble in recent years. The stock’s price has dropped by more than 70% in the past five years and by more than 60% in the past one year. Most of the gains experienced in the past year have happened in the past six months.

The company’s has moved from one crisis to another in the past few years. In 2018, the company got into a crisis after its Trent 1,000 engines started developing cracks. This led the iconic British engineering firm to invest millions of dollars to repair the engines. At the same time, Airbus announced that it would stop production of the Airbus A380, the biggest plane in the world. Rolls Royce was the main engine provider for this plane.

This year, the coronavirus pandemic has hit Rolls Royce hard. The virus has led many airlines to halt flights and cancel orders. As a result, the company announced weak half year results in July. It’s cash outflows increased to £3 billion. Widebody flying hours declined by 50% in the first half of the year.

All this led to a rating downgrade. Also, it seems like investors are getting tired as the company plans more dilution of the stock. According to the Financial Times, ValueAct, once the biggest investor in the firm has exited its stake with a significant loss. And, investors are opposed to the company’s plan to raise between £1.5 billion and £2 billion.

But analysts are optimistic

Analysts are optimistic that Rolls Royce share price will ultimately recover. In a recent note, analysts at Goldman Sachs lowered their target for Rolls Royce. They slashed their target from 528p to 509p, which implies that the stock may rise by more than 50%. Meanwhile, analysts at Jefferies, Citigroup, and Panmure Gordon expect the stock will climb to 500p, 564p, and 400p, respectively. In total, most of these analysts have rated the stock as a hold.

Rolls Royce analysts forecast

Rolls Royce stock price forecast

The daily chart shows that Rolls Royce share price tumbled to a 11-year low of 211p last week. Since then, the price has pared back some of the losses and is now at the highest level since July 23. The price is also attempting to move above the 50-day exponential moving averages. It has also moved above the descending trend line that is shown in black.

Therefore, in the near term, I expect that the price will continue rising as bulls target the next resistance at 300p. On the flip side, a move below 240p will invalidate this trend. This price is the lowest swing on Friday last week.

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Rolls Royce share price forecast

Rolls Royce Share Price

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