Rio Tinto share price has made a remarkable recovery since November as investors cheer the ongoing China reopening. After falling to a low of 4,431p in November, the stock soared to a high of 5,920p in December. It ended 2022 a few points below its highest point in 2022.
Risks and opportunities
Rio Tinto is a giant mining conglomerate that owns assets in several countries. It mines and sells important commodities like iron ore, copper, lithium, diamonds and other metals. Like most mining groups, Rio Tinto sells most of its products in China, the world’s biggest consumer of commodities like copper and iron ore.
2022 was a mixed year for the company exited its Russian operations. While commodity prices remained at an elevated level, the company repored a loss and slashed its dividend. Its underlying earnings for the first six months of the year dropped to $8.6 billion. This performance happened even as other mining companies like Glencore reported strong results.
Rio Tinto faces numerous risks and opportunities in the coming years. The main opportunity is that iron ore price will rise in 2023 as China reopens. Iron ore is an important metal for the company since it is the biggest player in the industry. Rising China demand will likely act as a catalyst.
However, investors should be aware that the iron ore opportunity has already been priced in the market. And in most cases, such expectations tend to end with premium tears for investors. For example, EV stocks tumbled in 2022 even as demand rose.
Turquoise Hill Resources buyout
Another opportunity is the recent acquisition of Turquoise Hill Resources (THR). THR mines copper, gold, uranium, and molybdenum. This buyout will help the company diversify its results since its business has always been skewed towards iron ore.
Further, the stock is still a bargain following its weak performance in 2022. Finally, demand for copper and gold is rising internationally.
The main risks for Rio Tinto share price is that commodity prices will resume the downward trend in 2023. There are also significant recession risks ahead, which could dampen the company’s outlook.
Rio Tinto share price forecast
The daily chart shows that the RIO share price has been rising in the past few weeks. This recovery is being supported by the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It rose above the important resistance point at 5,196p, the highest point on October 10. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved to 60, which is a few points below the overbought point of 70.
Therefore, the stock will likely continue rising as buyers target the 2022 high of 6,346p. A drop below the support at 5,565p will invalidate the bullish view. This view is in line with my most recent RIO stock forecast.
