NZDUSD trading 0.07% lower at 0.6263 in an attempt to move away from four-year lows kiwi is under pressure after RBA cut interest rates and investors increase bets that RBNZ will follow. RBNZ, in its last monetary policy committee, left interest rates unchanged at 1% as expected by markets. The central bank noted that the risks are to the downside amid trade tensions, geopolitical turbulence and low business confidence. On the macro data front New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price came in at 0%, below expectations of 0.4% in September.
NZDUSD trades close at levels that we haven’t seen since August 2015. A short-lived three day rebound stalled at the downtrend line around 0.63, and the bearish trend resumed driving the price lower for three days in a row. A weak US dollar helped NZD to move away from the recent lows. On the upside, the downtrend from July caps the rebounds; immediate resistance stands 0.6273 today’s high, and then at 0,6309 the high from September 27th. On the downside, immediate support stands at 0.6257 daily low and then at 0.6203 yesterday’s low, a convincing break below might force the pair down to 0.6169 the lows from June 2009; The RSI trading out of the oversold area giving room for further downside move. NZDUSD short term outlook is bearish, and a break below 2015 lows now looks possible. Patient traders should wait for a convincing rebound above the 0.6395 where the 50-day moving average crosses to enter long positions.Download our latest quarterly market outlookfor our longer-term trade ideas.
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