Nonfarm Payrolls Preview and EUR/USD Forecast

The EUR/USD is falling for the fourth consecutive day ahead of the key employment numbers from the United States. The pair is trading at 1.2042, which is slightly below the year-to-date high of 1.2357.

EUR/USD News: The focus today will be on the US employment numbers. Yesterday, data by the ADP Institute showed that the economy added about 140k private jobs in January. That was an improvement from the previous job losses. 

Later today, the US will release the initial jobless claims numbers. Economists expect that more than 840k Americans filed for initial claims last week. Also, they see the continuing claims falling to more than 4.7 million people. 


The data will come a day before the US nonfarm payroll numbers. Analysts believe that the economy created about 50,000 jobs in January while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%.

EUR/USD technical analysis 

The EUR/USD pair broke-out below the previous support at 1.2055 this week as bears moved to the drivers seat. Since then, the pair has continued to decline, and is now at the lowest level since December 1. Therefore, in my view, the pair will continue falling as bears target the next support level at 1.1950. A break below 1.1950, will then open the possibility of the pair dropping to 1.1900. However, a move above 1.2172 will invalidate this trend.

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EURUSD technical chart


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