The British pound held on to its gains against the Indian rupee on Thursday, with the GBPINR pair up by 0.02% to trade at 105.62 at press time. The pair has gained 0.35% over the last week, but its daily gains will be limited by the latest Indian PMI data. In the same manner, weaker UK PMI data is likely to provide support for the rupee, increasing the downward pressure on GBPINR.
GBPINR started its upward movement on Tuesday after the S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI reading for March came in at 50.3, beating the forecast 49.9. It built up on the HSBC India Manufacturing PMI miss, which read 59.1, missing the forecast 59.2. However, come Thursday, the rupee got support from the HSBC India Manufacturing PMI, which came in at 61.2, exceeding the forecast 60.3.
The UK’s equivalent, the S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI curtailed the upside for GBPUD after recording 53.1, which was below the forecast 53.4. Similarly, the S&P Global/CIPS UK Composite PMI missed the forecast after coming in at 52.8 versus the forecast 52.9.
However, despite the many odds stuck against the pound sterling, the rupee’s upside will face opposition from the rising global crude oil prices. India is the world’s third-largest importer of crude oil, and the commodity’s rise to its highest levels since October 2023 could destabilise the rupee. Looking ahead, the GBPINR intraday trading could be impacted as traders reposition themselves for Friday’s interest rate announcement by the Reserve Bank of India. However, the volatility is likely to be minimal, as the general consensus expects the RBI to maintain the 6.50% rate.
Technical analysis
The RSI on GBPINR signals control by the buyers. However, they will need to maintain the rate above the 105.59 pivot mark to break the resistance at 105.71. If that happens, they could build momentum to head higher to 105.80. However, control by the sellers is likely if the trading pair stays below 105.59. That could propel movement below the 105.46 support in extension which would invalidate the upside view. Furthermore, that could provide momentum to head lower to 105.24.
