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GBP to INR: Stuck in a Narrow Range Ahead of BoE, RBI

The GBP to INR exchange rate remained flat on Tuesday, with the next big catalysts being the upcoming Bank of England (BoE) and Reserve Bank of India (RBI) decisions. GBP/INR was trading at 100.80, a few points below last Friday’s high of 101.27. This price is about 3% above the lowest point in 2023.

GBP to INR 1D chart analysis

On the 1D chart, we see that the GBP/INR exchange rate has been in an overall bullish trend in the past few months. It has soared from a low of 85.05 in September last year and moved to a high of 102.72 on December 13. The price has risen above 98.31 (January 6 low and May 2022 high). It has also moved slightly above the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at 98.91

Further, the pair is being supported by the 50-day moving average. It seems to be in the process of forming a double-top pattern whose upper side is at 102.72. Therefore, the GBP to INR price will likely keep rising as buyers target the support at 109.72. This price is about 2% above the current level. The stop-loss of this trade will be the neckline of this double-top pattern at about 98.31.

GBP to INR price chart

GBP/INR 4H chart analysis

On the 4H chart, the GBP to INR forex exchange rate has been in a slow bullish trend in the past few days. It has formed an ascending channel that I have highlighted in green. The price is a few points above the lower side of this channel. The pair has also formed an inverted head and shoulders pattern and moved above the Ichimoku cloud indicator.

Therefore, the likely scenario is where the pair moves back up and retests the upper side of the ascending channel at about 101.36. This price is about 65 basis points above the current level. However, a volume-supported crash below the lower side of the ascending channel will signal that bears have prevailed. Such a move will next bring the psychological level at 100 to view.

From a fundamental perspective, the GBP/INR price will react to this week’s Bank of England (BoE) decision. In it, economists expect that the bank will continue hiking interest rates by 0.50% since inflation remains above 10%. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), on the other hand, will not be under pressure to hike when it concludes its first meeting of the year next week.

GBP/INR chart
GBP/INR 4H chart