The Fossil stock price completed a comeback at the end of last week and has climbed above trend line support. So can FOSL now go higher?
Fossil Group Inc (NASDAQ: FOSL) finished Friday at $13.42, higher by $0.62 (+4.84%)
US fashion accessory retailer Fossil Group has been back in the spotlight this year. Despite the destruction the Covid-19 pandemic has wreaked on global high streets, FOSL found itself at a multi-year high of $28.60 in January.
Of course, this had much less to do with its core business and much more to do with short-sellers betting against the company. Similar to Express and Churchill Capital, FOSL had caught the attention of Reddit’s WallStreetBets investing forum.
The retail-focused forum highlighted the percentage of bets against the company had increased and could result in a short-squeeze if the price started to rise. Well, rise it did, and between the 25th and 28th of January, the Fossil stock price increased 200% from $9.55 to $28.60.
However, within three days, it was back at $12.45 and has been trading in a broad but narrowing range ever since.
FOSL technical outlook
The daily chart shows the triangle formation that has been the result of declining volatility. Fossil broke through the bottom-end of this pennant of Thursday’s dip to $12.04.
However, FOSL recovered intraday, reversing from the low and closing back inside the pattern Furthermore, the rally continued on Friday and Fossil closed out the week above both the trend line and the 50-day moving average at $13.35. However, it’s yet to recover the 100 DMA at $13.74. if it does, the top edge of the triangle at $14.53 looks probable.
Furthermore, $14.53 provides a breakout that targets the 3rd of June’s $15.86 high and following that the start of the descending trend line at $19.33.
Whilst the short interest is starting to come down. The 4,5000,000 shares that are in the hands of sellers represent 10.03% of the available float. Now, this may not be considered ridiculously high, but when you consider only 218,865,000 shares in Fossil Group changed hands on Friday, it could be a problem.
That being said, sometimes the shorts win. Should the price break down and out of the triangle again, it may signal the path is lower for the time being. Therefore, Should FOSL close below Thursday $12.04 low, it will negate the bullish outlook.