- USD/CHF is consolidating around 0.7750 as investors wait for the US ADP Employment and ISM Services PMI prints.
- Chairman Martin Schlegel has reiterated his "greatest concern" remains price stability, keeping the Swiss National Bank on a hawkish alert.
The USD/CHF pair is effectively in a “holding pattern” this Wednesday, trading flat near the 0.7750 level. After a month of January that saw the US Dollar defy its typical seasonal strength, the Greenback is now wobbling against the Swiss Franc as the market re-evaluates the Federal Reserve’s trajectory.
As the London session gains momentum, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has found a steady footing near 97.40, showing a quiet resolve as traders pause their recent rally to brace for a heavy slate of North American economic data.
SNB Policy Outlook: Why Price Stability Is Driving the Swiss Franc
Investors are laser-focused on today’s “double-header” of US economic indicators. The ADP Employment Change is expected to show that private employers added 48,000 workers in January, a slight improvement over December’s 41,000. This report is even more critical than usual, as a partial US government shutdown has delayed the official Nonfarm Payrolls report originally scheduled for this Friday.
Following the labor data, the ISM Services PMI is projected to dip slightly to 53.5. While still in expansion territory, any significant miss could reinforce the “soft landing” narrative and put further downward pressure on the USD.
As noted by analysts at Forex.com, the USD/CHF has remained “orderly” despite recent market carnage, respecting known technical levels while other safe havens have experienced wild swings.
The SNB Stance: A Focus on Price Stability
On the other side of the pair, the Swiss Franc remains supported by the steady hand of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Chairman Martin Schlegel recently emphasized that his “greatest concern” remains inflation and price stability. While Schlegel has acknowledged that Switzerland could see “negative inflation prints” this year, he clarified that this would not necessarily trigger an immediate rate cut, as the bank’s focus is on the medium-term outlook.
Currently, the SNB is expected to keep interest rates at 0%. The bank’s willingness to intervene in the currency markets to prevent an “over-appreciation” of the Franc remains a key factor, as a too-strong CHF could damage the competitiveness of the Swiss export sector.
USD/CHF Technical Outlook
- Immediate Support (0.7725): The pair has found a consistent floor here over the last week. A break below could open the door to the 0.7650 zone.
- Key Resistance (0.7880): This level represents a major multi-month pivot. Bulls will need a very strong ISM print to challenge this ceiling.
USD/CHF Outlook: Consolidation Near 0.7750 Ahead of US Data
The USD/CHF forecast for February 2026 is currently a story of competing central bank narratives. While the Fed is on pause after a series of rate cuts in late 2025, the SNB is prioritizing price stability over immediate stimulus. Until the data provides a clear winner in the “inflation vs. growth” debate, USD/CHF is likely to remain range-bound.
Because the official government jobs report is delayed due to the partial shutdown, the ADP print is the only real-time gauge of the US labor market available to traders this week.
If the ISM or ADP data misses expectations, the US Dollar usually weakens. This often leads to a “flight to safety,” where investors buy the Swiss Franc, causing the USD/CHF pair to drop.
Chairman Schlegel has stated that while negative rates are a “theoretical” tool, the threshold for returning to them is very high. Most economists expect the SNB to stay at 0% until at least 2028.