- GBP/INR holds above ₹121 as RBI policy continues to allow gradual rupee depreciation while limiting volatility.
- Technical indicators show a constructive bias, with downside moves remaining corrective as long as ₹120 holds.
- Without a policy shift, GBP/INR is likely to stay elevated into late 2026 rather than reverse sharply.
GBP/INR remains elevated above the ₹121.50 region as the new trading week unfolds, with price action confirming that India’s managed currency framework continues to cap any meaningful rupee recovery. The pair has stabilised near recent highs, reflecting policy-driven depreciation rather than fresh sterling strength.
Unlike volatile EM currency moves, GBP/INR price behaviour remains orderly. This suggests that the Reserve Bank of India is succeeding in smoothing volatility while allowing the broader rupee trend to persist, keeping the cross supported even as global FX markets remain relatively calm.
RBI Strategy Continues to Anchor GBP/INR Direction
The underlying driver remains unchanged: policy design, not market stress.
The RBI continues to operate a controlled FX regime that tolerates gradual rupee depreciation while intervening selectively to prevent disorderly moves. This approach prioritises export competitiveness and financial stability over currency strength, especially as import demand and dollar liquidity needs remain elevated.
Recent liquidity operations have eased pressure in forward markets, but they have not altered the rupee’s broader trajectory. As a result, GBP/INR stays elevated even in the absence of strong directional moves in GBP/USD.
GBP/INR Technical Picture: Momentum Remains Constructive
From a technical standpoint, GBP/INR continues to trade within a well-defined upward structure.
Momentum indicators remain supportive. The RSI is holding above the mid-50 zone, suggesting buyers retain control without entering overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD remains positive, indicating trend continuation rather than exhaustion.
GBP/INR Key Levels to Watch
- Immediate resistance: ₹122.00
- Upper range extension: ₹124.00
- Key support: ₹120.00
- Deeper support: ₹118.50
As long as GBP/INR holds above ₹120, downside moves are likely to remain corrective rather than structural.
What Would Change the GBP/INR Outlook?
A meaningful shift would require either:
- A clear policy pivot from the RBI toward actively strengthening the rupee, or
- A sharp improvement in capital inflows that reduces structural dollar demand
Absent either development, GBP/INR is likely to remain range-bound at elevated levels, with an upside bias driven by policy tolerance rather than speculative pressure.
GBP/INR Outlook: Controlled Strength, Not Instability
GBP/INR’s resilience reflects managed depreciation, not FX stress. The pair is expected to continue trading in wide but orderly ranges, with upside pressure building gradually rather than through sharp spikes.
For now, policy dynamics in India remain the dominant force shaping direction, keeping GBP/INR supported into early 2026.
GBP/INR Outlook for Late 2026
In my view, unless the RBI shifts toward actively strengthening the rupee, GBP/INR is likely to remain elevated into late 2026, with the pair potentially drifting toward the ₹123–₹125 range rather than reversing sharply lower.
GBP/INR remains elevated because the RBI allows gradual rupee depreciation while intervening only to smooth volatility, keeping the pair supported.
Meaningful rupee strength is unlikely without a shift in RBI policy or a surge in capital inflows into India.
GBP/INR may drift higher over time if current policy conditions persist, though gains are likely to be gradual rather than sharp.