- The current outlook for the USDJPY based on the BoJ Summary of Opinions is bearish, heading into the new year.
On 29 December, 2025, the Bank of Japan published its Summary of Opinions, highlighting its importance in shifting market attention back to rate hike discussions and influencing USDJPY, which is already showing signs of bearishness in response.
Why is this important for the USDJPY in the short term?
The BoJ’s’ Summary of Opinions’ mirrors the 19 December meeting minutes, where interest rates in Japan rose from 0.50% to 0.75%, and traders awaited this document to assess the bank’s stance on future hikes, impacting USDJPY sentiment.
The BoJ’s December meeting summary revealed that its policymakers are still considering additional rate hikes, despite raising the policy rate on 19 December to 30-year highs. The Summary of Opinions explicitly referenced debates about the Yen’s weakness, inflationary pressures, and real rates, which remain profoundly negative. The tone of the debates is supportive of the Yen in the short term.
Furthermore, BoJ officials still provided some intervention warnings, which could curb excessive Yen strength amid thinner end-of-year liquidity.
The broad-based USD weakness, supported by the Fed’s inclination towards easing in 2026, makes the upcoming FOMC minutes a key catalyst for USDJPY. With US yields remaining static today, carry trade support is reduced.
What this means for USD/JPY positioning today
- Traders are approaching USD/JPY with BoJ rate-hike repricing and potential BoJ intervention risk as near-term bullish Yen drivers, while the Fed’s dovishness is a primary driver of USD weakness.
- Practically, any rallies are presently hitting lower resistance barriers, and the evolving triangle pattern on the 4-hr chart has a greater chance of ending with a bearish outcome.
USDJPY Technical Outlook
The USDJPY remains capped by the 157.85 resistance, the 16 December 2024 high, tested multiple times without breach, reinforcing the importance of technical levels for strategic planning.
The immediate downside pivot comes in at 154.48, the previous lows of 5 December and 16 December 2025. If this pivot is degraded, the bears will have access to the next support target at 152.95, the prior low of 6 November 2025. Only if this support fails to hold will the door be flung open towards 151.71, the prior high of 17 October 2022 and 13 November 2023.
Only if the bulls manage to force a bounce from the triangle’s lower border will we see a potential run towards the 157.00 psychological resistance and previous high of 9 December 2025, which could boost confidence in a bullish scenario.