Current setup and Live Chart
The Nvidia share price continues to shake off the global oil shock risk premium and is riding on company fundamentals. The stock remains the bellwether for the AI complex, being headline-driven and policy sensitive.
The major fundamental push remains the GTC 2026 conference speech by CEO Jensen Huang, who mapped out a $1T+ revenue opportunity through 2027, along with an extensive roadmap for its futuristic Vera Rubin GPU.
The Nvidia share price has risen by more than 18% over the last 10 days, delivering the longest winning streak since a similar 10-day advance in 2023. This latest upsurge aligns with Nvidia’s denial of rumors of negotiations to acquire a major PC manufacturer, in a statement delivered to CNBC. Furthermore, the company continues to ride on the $1 trillion in orders announced by CEO Huang, which include orders for its Blackwell and Vera Rubin graphics processing units.
The stock closed trading on 13 April at 196.51, up 3.8%. This move has allowed it to break the trendline cap and is now mounting a challenge on the current resistance zone.
Nvidia Share Price: Macro Drivers
1. Growth transition
The AI market is now transitioning from the “training cycle” phase of its development to the “inference at scale” phase. This is the new growth transition, which affects market sentiment towards AI stocks. Now, AI stocks are no longer just a fad; they are the real deal.
2. Ecosystem deals/partnerships
As part of the growth transition, which deepens investor trust in the sector, the ecosystem is expected to see an influx of new financing, deals, and partnerships. Interconnect and optics partnerships support the broader AI narrative.
3. U.S Export Policy
The US trade and export policy regarding AI chips remains a factor that introduces structural volatility into Nvidia’s share price. In 2025, the US government introduced various levels of export prohibitions, with countries like China, which are perceived as a direct challenger to the US’s AI push, subject to near-total bans. China is Nvidia’s biggest export market, and interactions between the company and the US government will generate headlines that push volatility in the Nvidia share price.
Nvidia Share Price: Catalysts for the Week
The catalysts for this week’s price action could come from the following sources:
1. Follow-through demand from the GTC 2026 roadmap as provided by Nvidia’s CEO Huang. The key question is whether the market will continue to buy the roadmap, and for how long?
2. Rate repricing: the direct fallout of the oil shock has been the inflationary fears and the hawkish rate repricing that is now enveloping the markets. If Fed rate expectations are hawkish, this is a headwind for Nvidia’s stock.
3. Risk appetite: Nvidia remains sensitive to risk appetite, as the macro from the complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East has the capacity to override any AI stock fundamentals.
4. US trade policy headlines: China remains Nvidia’s largest export market. With the US government pushing for tighter export controls on AI chips, any headlines about the tightening or relaxation of export curbs will be a price catalyst.
Nvidia Share Price: Weekly Forecast Scenarios
Base case: the stock may have shifted from a choppy move to a clearly defined uptrend. Buyers will remain active on dips as long as the stock’s fundamentals remain intact.
Bull case: the bull case scenario is for the stock to retain its upside extension if the macro environment around geopolitics in the Middle East and US-China trade remains benign. Also, the inference narrative needs to stay upbeat.
Bear case: a reset of the current valuations to the downside, or global macro risk-off sentiment, could cause the Nvidia share price’s upside to take a breather, with a correction to downside pivots.
Nvidia Share Price: Technical Outlook
The break of the trendline has allowed the bulls to take aim at the immediate resistance zone at 196.30-196.72. A break of this zone releases the bulls to attempt a reclaim of the all-time high at 212.74, set on 29 October 2025.
However, a rejection at this resistance zone allows for a pullback which has to clear the minor support at 184.54, before hitting the next major support at 169.88.