The Nifty 50 forecasts for 2026 will be hinged on RBI policy, domestic v foreign flows and the earnings docket of its listed companies. India’s Nifty 50 index suffered its steepest weekly drop in four months on foreign outflows and tepid earnings. It closed at 25048 on 23 January 2026.
Live Chart
The Nifty 50 index chart above shows the asset’s long-term picture. It remains in a long-term uptrend with very little pullbacks in between. The major 2021 pullback corresponds to the market selloff that followed the outbreak of the COVID-19 delta strain in the country. Since then, the index has had a remarkable recovery, buoyed by the Reserve Bank of India’s easing of monetary policy and its positive impact on portfolio investments and the earnings momentum of lifted companies.
Nifty 50 Forecast 2026: Macro Drivers
The macro drivers of the Nifty 50 index are as follows:
- Foreign vs domestic portfolio investments
- Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy track
- Earnings breadth
- Global risk sentiment and tariffs
- India’s Budget/fiscal policy
1. Foreign v Domestic Flows
Foreign portfolio investments account for a large share of capital flows into Indian stock markets. The $3.5 billion exit from portfolio investments was a significant factor in January 2026’s poor performance of the Nifty 50 index, making it the worst month for the index since August 2025. Domestic flows, which could have cushioned the drop, also suffered a setback.
2. RBI Easing
The Indian central bank looks set to ease monetary policy further in 2026, a key point of the Nifty 50 index forecasts for 2026. Easing of monetary policy unlocks cheaper credit, allowing banks to expand their loan portfolios and boost domestic cyclicals. Investment bank JP Morgan specifically links its Nifty 50 forecasts for 2026 to this factor.
3. Earnings breadth
Indian stocks are in the midst of a re-rating, which now focuses on earnings recovery post-COVID. Several investment banks are citing improved earnings breadth and momentum as factors supporting a bullish case for the Nifty 50 index in 2026.
4. Global Risk Sentiment/Tariff
The tariffs and trade policies the US government under President Donald Trump continues to pursue have the potential to ignite risk-off scenarios, which could be a volatility factor for global stock markets. The Nifty 50 index remains vulnerable in this regard, as India has consistently been flagged as a target of US trade policy.
5. Budget/Fiscal Policy
The February 1, 2026, budget statement remains a potential catalyst for sentiment adjustments, as markets tend to reprice India’s fiscal outlook very rapidly.
Nifty 50 Forecast 2026: Institutional Targets
The following are the notable Nifty 50 forecast targets for 2026 as set by institutional entities.
JP Morgan has an end-2026 target of 30,000, based on expectations of further RBI rate cuts and tax breaks.
Goldman Sachs has a 29,000 target by the end of 2026, and has based its forecasts on improved earnings momentum. Citi Research’s target for the end of 2026 is set at 28,500, the same as a Reuters poll of economists.
Kotak Securities has a bullish outlook on the Nifty 50 index and has set a 32,032 price target for the end of 2026. Jeffries believes that improved earnings and limited valuation expansion will keep the Nifty 50 index at 28,300 by the end of 2026, which is still a bullish target from current prices.
Base case: The Nifty 50’s base case sees RBI policy and earnings recovery providing key support to move the index higher, with a grind towards the 28,300-29,000 price zone by end-2026.
Bull case: Steady growth in company earnings, a stronger-than-expected recovery, and India’s valuation premium vs other emerging market stock indices could make a case for a bull case. This scenario sees the Nifty 50 index breaching the 30,000 psychological barrier, with a potential to exceed 32,000.
Bear case: If the kind of foreign portfolio outflows seen in January 2026 proves to be a sustained factor, coupled with weak corporate earnings and risk-off market shocks, the Nifty 50 may be capped at the 25,000 – 27,000 price range.
Nifty 50 Forecast 2026: Technical Outlook
The Nifty 50 index remains in a structurally bullish long-term trend. The strong 2025 rally formed an ascending channel. However, the recent price action shows a loss of upside momentum and an attendant correction towards the lower edge of the channel.
An extension of the decline follows a breakdown of the channel’s lower boundary and the 24916 support, bringing the August 2024 and May 2025 lows at 23910 into play. The November 2024 low at 23,300 is an additional support for any further bearish moves.
On the flip side, a strong defence of the 24916 -25000 support with a higher low formation could open the pathway to rebound targets at 25707. A further extension to 26355 is the potential play if there is a break above 25707.
FAQ
What is the Nifty 50 index?
The Nifty 50 index is a composite index made up of the 50 most capitalized companies in the Indian stock market. It is a weighted index, meaning that not all companies carry equal weight. The valuation of the index is influenced heavily by a few of the largest cap stocks.
What are the Nifty 50 index 2026 targets as set by the institutional entities?
The Nifty 50 forecasts for 2026 range between 28,300 and 32,000. These targets are those indicated by Goldman Sacks, JP Morgan and Kotac Securities.