- Ethereum closed 2025 with nine losing months, its worst performance since the 2018 bear market
- ETH trades near $3,040, with $3,000 acting as a critical support level into 2026
- Despite price pressure, network activity hit record highs, highlighting structural resilience
Ethereum is entering 2026 under sustained pressure after closing 2025 with its harshest annual performance since the 2018 bear market. Data shows ETH recorded nine losing months out of twelve, reviving comparisons with prior cycle downturns and raising questions over whether the traditional four-year crypto cycle is weakening.
While spot prices have stabilised above major psychological levels, analysts say Ethereum’s inability to regain long-term momentum into year-end reflects a market still in correction rather than recovery mode.
Ethereum’s 2025 Declines Mirror 2018 Bear Market Patterns
According to data from CoinGlass, Ethereum declined consecutively from February through April 2025 and again from September through December 2025. February 2025 delivered the steepest drop, with ETH falling 32%, followed by a 22% decline in November 2025 and an 18.7% slide in March 2025.
Although July and August 2025 provided temporary relief, with gains of 48.8% and 18.8% respectively, the broader annual trend remained decisively negative. This sequence closely mirrors 2018, when Ethereum suffered repeated double-digit monthly crashes, including a 53.8% collapse in March 2018, reinforcing 2025 as Ethereum’s weakest year since that cycle.
ETH Price Holds $3,000 as Technical Pressure Persists
As of early January 2026, Ethereum trades near $3,039, posting modest daily gains but remaining down roughly 11% year-over-year. On the daily chart, price is hovering just above its 200-period moving average and a major horizontal support zone around $3,000.
Market analysts note that Ethereum’s price structure remains compressed. A sustained daily close above $3,000 is seen as necessary to stabilise momentum, while a failure to hold this level could extend sideways or corrective trading into the first quarter.
Ethereum Key Technical Levels
- Support: $3,000, then $2,850
- Resistance: $3,300, followed by $4,800
- Downside risk if support fails: $2,500
Crypto Analyst Predicts that Ethereum Price May Hit $4,000 in 2026
Despite bearish conditions, some analysts argue Ethereum retains rebound potential if key technical structures hold. Crypto analyst Cas Abbe has pointed to ETH trading above a long-term ascending trendline connecting major swing lows since mid-2025, a structure that has remained intact through the downturn.
Momentum indicators are also showing early signs of stabilisation. RSI and MACD on the daily timeframe are attempting to turn higher, forming a bullish divergence. Analysts caution, however, that a break below the trendline would invalidate the rebound case and reopen downside risk toward $2,500.
Ethereum Whales and Institutions Increase Accumulation
Positioning data suggests accumulation is continuing beneath the surface. BitMine has increased its Ethereum holdings over recent weeks, reinforcing expectations of a longer-term recovery. Separately, on-chain data shows addresses holding more than 1,000 ETH now control roughly 70% of circulating supply, reflecting renewed accumulation by large holders.
ETF flows have also improved. After heavy outflows earlier in December, Ethereum ETFs recorded net inflows in the final week of 2025, signalling easing sell-side pressure as the new year begins.
Ethereum Outlook for Early 2026
Ethereum enters 2026 in a compression phase, not capitulation. While historical comparisons point to a bear-market environment, continued developer activity, institutional accumulation, and improving flow data suggest downside may remain orderly rather than disorderly.
A sustained break above resistance would be required to validate a broader recovery. Until then, ETH is likely to trade in wide ranges, with $3,000 acting as the key line separating stabilisation from renewed downside.
Ethereum shows clear bear-market characteristics based on price structure and historical comparisons, though it has avoided capitulation.
A move toward $4,000 is possible if ETH holds key support and reclaims resistance, but the setup remains conditional and not yet confirmed.
Ethereum may appeal to long-term investors due to strong network activity and ongoing accumulation, but near-term price action remains volatile and risk-dependent.